Guggenheim raised its 12-month price target for US Foods to $115.00 from $95.00 on Friday while maintaining a Buy rating on the food distributor’s shares. The stock is trading at $99.02, and InvestingPro analysis indicates US Foods is slightly undervalued relative to its Fair Value estimate.
The analyst update followed US Foods’ fourth-quarter earnings report, which Guggenheim described as "in-line" with expectations. The company also provided initial guidance for 2026. For the last twelve months, US Foods reported $39.42 billion in revenue and diluted earnings per share of $2.94.
Guggenheim highlighted that US Foods’ shares have recently outperformed the S&P 500 by 15%, a result the firm found "very surprising" given the company’s earnings performance. The firm suggested some investor interest stems from US Foods’ "business model largely insulated from potential AI disruption."
The updated price target is based in part on US Foods’ present 2026E EBITDA multiple of 13.2x, which Guggenheim said is "solidly above the historical 12x upper valuation boundary." Despite the higher target, Guggenheim left its 2026-2027 bottom-line estimates unchanged.
Third-party data from InvestingPro shows the company currently trades at a P/E ratio of 33.15 and an EV/EBITDA of 15.27, reinforcing the view that US Foods carries premium valuation multiples compared with historical norms.
Guggenheim signaled an expectation for a period of price consolidation - characterizing the need for a "digestion period" - but did not offer a timeline for how long such a phase might last. The firm noted that improving momentum in the independent restaurant segment strengthens confidence in possible near-term upside, particularly if fiscal stimulus measures help counteract depressed traffic levels.
With a market capitalization of $22.05 billion, US Foods operates as a sizeable participant in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry.
Recent company results and contract activity provide further color on the operating picture. In its fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, US Foods reported adjusted EPS of $1.04, beating a $1.01 consensus by 2.97%, while revenue for the quarter came in at $9.8 billion, missing the $9.94 billion forecast by 1.41%.
Separately, US Foods-Lexington secured a $603 million contract to supply food and beverage products to U.S. military services. The award, made by the Defense Logistics Agency Troop Support, includes economic-price-adjustment provisions and was won through a competitive bidding process.
Analyst reactions have been mixed. Piper Sandler moved to downgrade US Foods from Overweight to Neutral, explaining the change as valuation-driven despite raising its own price target from $85.00 to $103.00. The downgrade was explicitly framed as not reflecting a negative view of the company’s long-term growth prospects.
Taken together, the updated targets and recent operational disclosures illustrate a market weighing steady operating performance and meaningful contracts against elevated valuation multiples. Investors and market observers will likely watch upcoming traffic trends at independent restaurants and any fiscal policy developments closely, given their potential to influence near-term demand.
For investors seeking a quantitative take, InvestingPro offers further model-based context, including 16 additional ProTips and a comprehensive Pro Research Report for US Foods among its coverage universe of more than 1,400 U.S. equities. The service also provides a Fair Value calculator that uses a mix of 17 valuation models for those looking to assess whether USFD is attractively priced at current levels.