Guggenheim on Friday increased its price target for Tenet Healthcare (NYSE:THC) to $271.00, up from $257.00, and kept a Buy rating following the company’s fourth-quarter report and the release of its 2026 guidance. The stock is trading at $231.20, roughly 1% below its 52-week high of $235.77, per InvestingPro data.
Tenet’s reported fourth-quarter EBITDA was consistent with the company’s prior disclosure, while the midpoint of its 2026 guidance landed about 3% above analyst and investor expectations. Management’s outlook does not assume any material year-over-year core benefits from the Directed Payment Program (DPP). Over the last twelve months, Tenet generated $4.3 billion in EBITDA and reported diluted earnings per share of $15.49.
The 2026 guidance places particular emphasis on Tenet’s Hospital segment, where management projects roughly 10% core EBITDA growth. Company leadership attributes this improvement to elevated high-acuity case mix and targeted expense management initiatives that were implemented in response to policy pressures. Tenet’s market capitalization stands at $20.3 billion, and it carries an overall financial health score of "GREAT" at 3.39 on InvestingPro.
Guggenheim highlighted several avenues for potential upside to 2026 EBITDA beyond the base guidance. These include the possibility of additional DPP approvals that could still materialize, revenue and margin contributions from Conifer transitional services, continued development of United Surgical Partners International (USPI), and enhanced bottom-line results from share buybacks that could exceed high single-digit percentages when accretive transactions are included alongside robust free cash flow.
Despite those upside scenarios, the research firm expressed caution about material headwinds expected after 2026. Specifically, Guggenheim noted risks in 2027 tied to the loss of CommonSpirit Conifer EBITDA and the implementation of Medicaid work requirements, and it called out DPP reimbursement pressures as a challenge anticipated in 2028. Nonetheless, the firm remained constructive on Tenet’s near-term trajectory given the 2026 guidance and recent operational performance.
Additional analyst activity followed Tenet’s quarterly update. The company reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share of $4.70 versus a consensus forecast of $4.02, and revenue of $5.53 billion compared with an expected $5.47 billion. In response, KeyBanc increased its price target to $250 from $225, maintained an Overweight rating, and characterized the fourth-quarter results and 2026 guidance as favorable.
Jefferies also raised its target to $265 from $250 while retaining a Buy rating, citing Tenet’s roughly 5% EBITDA growth trajectory and its ability to generate free cash flow. These analyst adjustments reflect a broadly positive reception among research firms to the company’s recent performance and outlook for 2026.
Taken together, the updates from Guggenheim and other firms underscore a favorable near-term view of Tenet driven by hospital-level earnings expansion, transitional service opportunities, and shareholder-friendly capital deployment. At the same time, analysts and the company acknowledge a set of policy-related and contractual uncertainties that could weigh on results in subsequent years.
Investors and market participants tracking the Healthcare Providers & Services sector and hospital operators will likely focus on Tenet’s ability to sustain high-acuity volumes, execute on expense management plans, and convert free cash flow into accretive buybacks while monitoring regulatory and reimbursement developments that could affect future EBITDA.