Guggenheim increased its price target for Sphere Entertainment (NYSE:SPHR) to $150.00 from $136.00 on Friday, while leaving its rating at Buy. The move follows the company’s fourth-quarter financial disclosures, which yielded results that topped the research firm’s expectations.
At the time of the update, shares of SPHR were trading at $111.98. The stock has exhibited notable momentum over the past year, delivering a 144% gain and trading close to a 52-week high of $117.06.
Guggenheim’s decision to raise the target was informed by the Sphere segment’s Q4 performance. The segment reported revenue of $274 million and adjusted operating income, or AOI, of $89 million. Those figures exceeded Guggenheim’s prior estimates of $255 million in revenue and $75 million in AOI.
The firm attributed part of the upside to stronger-than-expected results from the "The Wizard of Oz" experience during the quarter, noting that the attraction outperformed even Guggenheim’s earlier upward revisions.
Looking ahead, Guggenheim set out a first-quarter forecast that calls for $246 million in revenue and $53 million in AOI for the Sphere segment. The research firm characterized the outlook as implying meaningful year-over-year growth, driven by continued momentum from the "The Wizard of Oz" experience, an active concert and event schedule, and new sponsorship agreements.
Guggenheim also raised its full-year 2026 AOI forecast to $235 million from $220 million. The firm cited expectations that financial results will continue to improve as shows and residencies scale, venue utilization increases, cost discipline holds, and advertising, sponsorship and suite revenue grow.
Separately, Sphere Entertainment Co. reported Q4 2025 GAAP results that significantly surprised the market to the upside. The company posted earnings per share of $1.23, compared with an anticipated EPS of -$0.30, representing a 510% surprise versus expectations. On the top line, reported revenue for the quarter was $394.3 million versus an expected $372.92 million, a 5.73% surprise.
Those quarterly results and the subsequent analyst attention have heightened investor focus on the company’s near-term trajectory. The earnings beat and revenue outperformance are central elements cited by Guggenheim in its forecast revisions and target increase.
Outlook and implications
Guggenheim’s updated forecasts and price-target lift reflect the firm’s view that Sphere’s operating performance and revenue mix can continue to improve as events and sponsorships expand. The research house points to scaled shows and residencies, higher venue utilization and growth in advertising, sponsorship and suite sales as primary levers for AOI expansion.
Market reaction to the results has appeared positive, with the stock trading well above pre-report levels and near its annual highs.
Limitations
The company’s near-term projections and Guggenheim’s forecasts are tied to the ongoing success of specific experiences, event scheduling and sponsorship deals that underpinned the recent quarter’s outperformance.
Key financials cited
- Q4 Sphere segment revenue: $274 million
- Q4 Sphere segment AOI: $89 million
- Guggenheim Q4 estimates (prior): $255 million revenue, $75 million AOI
- Guggenheim Q1 forecast: $246 million revenue, $53 million AOI
- Guggenheim 2026 AOI forecast: $235 million (up from $220 million)
- Reported Q4 2025 EPS: $1.23 vs expected -$0.30 (510% surprise)
- Reported Q4 2025 revenue: $394.3 million vs expected $372.92 million (5.73% surprise)