Guggenheim on Friday raised its price target for Merck (NYSE:MRK) to $140.00 from $122.00 and kept a Buy recommendation following the company's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report. At the time of the note, Merck shares were trading at $119.75, roughly 2% below a 52-week high of $122.43.
Earnings and guidance
The research firm characterized Merck’s fourth-quarter earnings as generally in line with expectations, but flagged the company’s 2026 revenue guidance as below consensus. Despite that shortfall, Guggenheim revised significant elements of its long-term forecast for the company rather than adopting a more conservative near-term stance.
Model changes and rationale
Guggenheim’s updated long-term model incorporates a changed assumption about when intravenous Keytruda will face loss of exclusivity and lifts longer-term revenue projections for key commercial products and selected pipeline candidates. The firm’s new target is close to the Fair Value assessment available from InvestingPro, indicating potential upside from current prices based on those longer-range assumptions.
Separately, InvestingPro data cited by the research note indicates that Merck has paid dividends for 56 consecutive years and has increased its dividend for 15 straight years.
Catalysts highlighted by Guggenheim
- Full Winrevair Phase 2 CADENCE data in patients with Cpc-PH due to HFpEF, scheduled for presentation at ACC 2026 on March 29, 2026.
- MK-3000 Phase 3 topline data in diabetic macular edema (DME).
- Tulisokibart Phase 3 topline data in ulcerative colitis (UC).
Guggenheim reiterated that Merck remains one of its "Top Picks" in the pharmaceutical sector and held to its Buy rating.
Market context and analyst positioning
Merck maintains a consensus Buy recommendation with a 1.93 rating on InvestingPro’s scale. The stock has seen notable moves recently, rising 8.6% over the past week and 53.5% over the last six months.
Other firms have also adjusted their outlooks and targets. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $109, citing Merck’s 2026 revenue guidance of $65.5 billion to $67.0 billion, which it noted equates to growth of 1-3% versus 2025. BMO Capital increased its target to $135, driven in part by the possibility of Keytruda patent protection extending beyond its current 2028 expiration. Wells Fargo likewise raised its target to $135, retained an Overweight rating and emphasized the role of new launches and late-stage pipeline assets. BofA Securities moved its target to $132, reflecting a cautious stance on products approaching loss of exclusivity and updated U.S. Gardasil sales. Bernstein raised its target to $100 while keeping a Market Perform rating, observing investor optimism in the pipeline despite what it described as a "soft-guide" from the company.
Takeaway
Guggenheim’s upgrade to a $140 target rests on revised long-term projections and timing assumptions for key assets, even as Merck’s near-term revenue outlook missed consensus. Multiple analysts have updated targets in both directions, reflecting differing assessments of patent timelines, new product launches and late-stage clinical readouts. The firm’s note identifies specific upcoming data releases as potential stock-moving events.