Guggenheim on Tuesday raised its price objective for Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AXSM) to $220, up from $205, while preserving a Buy recommendation. The move reflects continuing bullishness on the stock across Wall Street, where analysts collectively maintain a Strong Buy consensus and price targets that extend as high as $260.
The firm pointed to Axsome's solid fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 performance as a primary justification for the higher target. Auvelity, the company's lead product, generated $155.1 million in sales during the quarter - a 14% increase sequentially - and prescriptions for the treatment reached roughly 225,000, an 8% quarter-over-quarter gain. Those results contributed to total revenue of $638.5 million for the trailing twelve months, a 66% increase compared with the prior year.
An InvestingPro note highlighted the company's high gross profit margin of 93%, which the analysis described as indicative of meaningful operational leverage as Axsome expands. To support additional uptake, management is enlarging its commercial footprint to about 600 sales representatives with the stated goal of accelerating growth in major depressive disorder and preparing for a potential launch addressing agitation associated with Alzheimer’s disease.
Other marketed products also showed momentum. Sunosi produced $36.7 million in revenue when including royalties, and company management is planning two parallel Phase III trials in pediatric ADHD slated for the first half of 2026. Symbravo, now through its second full quarter on the market, delivered $4.1 million in revenue and reported a substantial 147% quarter-over-quarter increase in prescription volume.
On the regulatory front, Axsome's supplemental new drug application for AXS-05 in Alzheimer’s disease agitation has been granted Priority Review, with a PDUFA target action date set for April 30, 2026. Guggenheim characterized the opportunity for this indication as one that could potentially generate peak sales exceeding $1 billion. Separately, Axsome intends to file a new drug application for AXS-12 in narcolepsy in the first quarter of 2026, targeting a possible commercial launch in early 2027.
The company also projects it will achieve cash-flow positivity during the current year. These program and financial milestones have attracted reaffirmations from other research shops: TD Cowen raised its price target to $215 while maintaining a Buy rating and highlighted Auvelity's growth potential, and Truist Securities reiterated a Buy stance with a $200 price target. Truist specifically pointed to the company's expansion of its sales organization by 300 representatives in advance of the FDA decision on the Alzheimer's agitation indication, noting management's expectation that the drug, if approved, could enter the market roughly one quarter after approval.
Despite the upbeat earnings and analyst attention, Axsome's shares traded lower in pre-market activity, slipping more than 2% even though the fourth-quarter Auvelity revenue of $155.1 million matched the company's pre-announcement figure and prescription volume rose by about 8% sequentially, driven largely by increased adoption within the primary care physician channel.
Summary and context - the company is reporting accelerating commercial metrics across its marketed therapies, is expanding its salesforce substantially to support further adoption, and has multiple regulatory milestones on the calendar that analysts view as material to long-term revenue potential.
- Key Points:
- Guggenheim increased its Axsome price target to $220 and kept a Buy rating amid strong Q4 fiscal 2025 results.
- Auvelity sales were $155.1 million in the quarter with approximately 225,000 prescriptions; trailing twelve-month revenue reached $638.5 million, up 66% year-over-year.
- Axsome is scaling its salesforce to roughly 600 representatives, advancing clinical programs and regulatory filings with notable milestones due in 2026 and potential launches in 2026-2027.
- Risks and uncertainties:
- Regulatory risk related to the AXS-05 supplemental application - the FDA decision on the Priority Review has a PDUFA date of April 30, 2026, and outcomes are inherently uncertain.
- Market reaction risk - shares fell more than 2% in pre-market trading despite results that met prior guidance, showing potential volatility in investor response to operational updates.
- Execution risk tied to commercial expansion - the company is growing its salesforce substantially to roughly 600 representatives; successful commercialization depends on execution in primary care and specialty channels.
These developments touch several parts of the market and economy, notably the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, the broader healthcare services and medical sales ecosystems, and equity markets where analyst revisions and regulatory timelines often drive investor behavior.
Overall, analysts' revised targets and the company's reported metrics underline optimism about Axsome's near-term commercial trajectory, even as regulatory and execution risks remain active variables to monitor.