Guggenheim has revised down its valuation of StubHub Holdings, setting a new price target of $9.00, lowered from $16.00, while keeping a Buy recommendation on the shares. The stock is trading near $9.31 and has declined roughly 58% over the last year, leaving the company with a market capitalization of about $3.22 billion.
The firm pointed to a mix of negative factors it expects to pressure the business this year. Foremost among them are regulatory actions and what Guggenheim described as Concert secondary market pressures in the U.S. Those headwinds, the analyst noted, are only partially mitigated by anticipated demand tailwinds from the World Cup and the company’s ongoing work on strategic initiatives such as advertising and direct issuance.
Regulatory developments are central to Guggenheim’s reassessment. The analyst cited proposed legislation in the UK, California and New York as primary sources of concern and wrote that additional jurisdictions are likely to create further pressure on StubHub’s core secondary business in the months and years ahead.
Reflecting those risks, Guggenheim lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for StubHub. The 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate was reduced to $423 million from $471 million - well below consensus of $708 million. For 2027, the firm cut its adjusted EBITDA estimate to $601 million from $737 million, compared with consensus at $1.11 billion. Those revised estimates come against the backdrop of last-twelve-months results in which StubHub posted a negative EBITDA of $1.22 billion while maintaining a gross profit margin of 80%.
InvestingPro analysis included with the coverage indicates that analysts do not expect StubHub to reach profitability this year. The company is scheduled to report earnings on March 4.
Guggenheim’s decision to keep a Buy rating despite the downgrade in target price and earnings estimates suggests the firm still sees value in the business franchise and its growth initiatives, even as near-term regulatory and market risks mount.
Commercial momentum and partnerships
StubHub has pursued a series of commercial partnerships and product moves that the market will watch closely. The company was named the Official Direct Issuance Partner for the 2025 World Sevens Football Championship, a role that will leverage its technology to manage ticket distribution in North America and, via viagogo, internationally. StubHub has also broadened its local partnerships across the U.S., working on events such as Washington D.C.’s "Duel in the District" basketball game and the Country Thunder music festival series. The company cites these collaborations as ways to expand its presence in key markets through its Direct Issuance technology.
In product development, StubHub rolled out a new app on ChatGPT that enables users to discover live events through conversational interactions and to access real-time ticket inventory and pricing information.
Other analyst actions
Market sentiment among some sell-side firms has shifted. Citizens downgraded StubHub from Market Outperform to Market Perform, pointing to the prospect of increased competition in 2026 that could pressure market share and raise marketing costs. Separately, Craig-Hallum began coverage with a Hold rating and a $12.00 price target, calling out the company’s rapid market share gains which it attributes to effective marketing strategies.
Overall, the coverage mix reflects a tension between StubHub’s operational progress - including partnerships, direct issuance deployment and product innovation - and regulatory and market pressures that have prompted material downgrades to near-term profitability expectations.