Guggenheim has started research coverage on Avalo Therapeutics Inc. and assigned a Buy rating with a price target of $50.00, citing the promise of the company’s lead program in hidradenitis suppurativa, or HS. The $50.00 target implies meaningful upside relative to the stock's most recent trading price of $15.11, although InvestingPro data referenced by analysts indicates the share price is trading above its Fair Value.
At the core of Guggenheim’s thesis is the therapeutic potential of selectively blocking interleukin-1 beta, or IL-1β, as a treatment modality for HS. The research note observes that prior work with AbbVie’s Lutikizumab validated IL-1β as an important target in HS but also points to limitations in that agent’s dual inhibition mechanism and its frequent dosing schedule.
Avalo’s candidate, AVTX-009, is an anti-IL-1β monoclonal antibody. Guggenheim emphasizes that AVTX-009 offers IL-1β-specific targeting and reports that the molecule has more than 15 times greater affinity for IL-1β than competing agents. The firm suggests this profile could translate into a better risk-benefit balance and potentially allow for less frequent dosing.
AVTX-009 is being evaluated in a Phase II clinical study named LOTUS, which includes 250 participants. Avalo expects topline results from that trial in the second quarter of 2026. Guggenheim assigns a 65% probability of success for the program to progress from Phase II to a Phase III trial.
On potential commercial outcomes, Guggenheim models approximately $2.1 billion in peak worldwide sales for AVTX-009 if it receives approval. The research note contrasts that revenue projection with Avalo’s current enterprise valuation and balance sheet position. Guggenheim notes an enterprise value near $530 million, while InvestingPro data shows a market capitalization of $279.73 million. The stock has delivered a 91.5% return over the past six months even as the company has not reported profitability over the most recent twelve-month period. Avalo’s balance sheet is characterized by having more cash than debt and liquid assets that exceed short-term obligations.
Other broker-dealer coverage of Avalo has been active. H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating and maintained a $25.00 price target following an investor meeting in which company management discussed the Phase II LOTUS trial; that firm also notes topline data is expected in the second quarter of 2026. Separately, Mizuho initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and established a $39.00 price target, citing the promise of AVTX-009. Mizuho likewise points to anticipated Phase II results in mid-2026.
These differing price targets and ratings underscore varied analyst expectations about Avalo’s lead program and its commercial prospects. Guggenheim’s initiation is notable both for its relatively high price target and for the emphasis on IL-1β selectivity and potential dosing advantages. Investors looking at Avalo will see an intersection of clinical development risk, modeled commercial opportunity, and current market valuation that is already elevated versus reported Fair Value metrics.
Key dates and figures from coverage
- Guggenheim price target: $50.00
- Most recent trading price cited: $15.11
- Phase II LOTUS study size: 250 participants
- Topline data expected: second quarter of 2026
- Guggenheim probability of Phase II to Phase III success: 65%
- Modeled peak global sales for AVTX-009: ~$2.1 billion
- Approximate enterprise value cited: $530 million
- InvestingPro market capitalization cited: $279.73 million
- Six-month stock performance: +91.5%