Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its Neutral rating on Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARWR) and left its price target unchanged at $85.00, saying the firm sees the company now operating as a commercial-stage entity after Redemplo received approval for FCS.
The investment bank emphasized that investor attention has pivoted toward Arrowhead's clinical pipeline, where several potential value-driving events are expected in 2026. Foremost among those is the Phase 3 plozasiran SHASTA3/4 program in severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG), for which data are anticipated in the third quarter of 2026.
Goldman Sachs noted that competitor data have begun to de-risk the connection between triglyceride lowering and a reduction in acute pancreatitis, but the bank also flagged that available information on how trials are powered for the acute pancreatitis endpoint is limited. The firm further called out potential pricing dynamics tied to Ionis Pharmaceuticals' Tryngolza should that therapy receive approval in sHTG, identifying pricing as an important variable for market outcomes.
Beyond plozasiran, the bank outlined a series of 2026 milestones across Arrowhead's pipeline. Additional updates are expected for ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7, where attention will center on both monotherapy results and combination approaches with GLP-1 agents; regulatory discussions for these programs are scheduled for mid-2026. Management has also guided initial data for ARO-DIMER-PA to the second half of 2026, with internal targets of roughly 40-50% reductions in both LDL-C and triglycerides.
Goldman Sachs expects early healthy volunteer data for ARO-MAPT within the current year, noting those readouts should include safety measures and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau knockdown metrics. The bank referenced positive proof-of-concept data from BIIB080 as a contextual reference point for ARO-MAPT's initial healthy volunteer readouts.
On the financial front, Arrowhead posted a strong first quarter for fiscal 2026. Earnings per share came in at $0.22, well above the $0.12 analysts had forecast, representing an 83.33% surprise. Revenue for the quarter reached $264 million, exceeding the expected $227.61 million. Despite the upside versus estimates on both EPS and revenue, Goldman Sachs and other observers have noted concerns around the company's forward earnings guidance.
The combination of a recent commercial approval, upcoming clinical data across multiple programs, and a better-than-expected quarterly performance has focused investor scrutiny on how the pipeline and potential pricing outcomes will influence future financials. The firm maintains a cautious posture, keeping the Neutral rating while identifying the 2026 catalysts as possible unlocks of additional value.
Clear summary
Goldman Sachs retains a Neutral rating and $85 price target on Arrowhead after the company's shift to commercial status with Redemplo's approval for FCS. The bank highlighted a set of expected 2026 clinical readouts - notably the Phase 3 plozasiran SHASTA3/4 trial in sHTG - and flagged both recent upside in Q1 fiscal 2026 results and lingering questions on forward guidance.
Key points
- Goldman Sachs reiterated a Neutral rating and $85.00 price target on Arrowhead (NASDAQ:ARWR).
- Primary 2026 catalysts include plozasiran SHASTA3/4 Phase 3 results in sHTG (data expected in Q3 2026), additional ARO-INHBE/ARO-ALK7 updates with mid-2026 regulatory discussions, ARO-DIMER-PA initial data in H2 2026, and early ARO-MAPT healthy volunteer results this year.
- Q1 fiscal 2026 results beat estimates: EPS $0.22 vs $0.12 expected (83.33% surprise), and revenue $264 million vs $227.61 million forecast. Nevertheless, concerns over future guidance remain.
Risks and uncertainties
- Limited detail on powering for the acute pancreatitis endpoint - this creates uncertainty around whether triglyceride reductions will translate into the clinical outcomes investors seek. (Impacts biotech and healthcare sectors.)
- Potential pricing dynamics if competitors like Ionis gain approval in sHTG - pricing outcomes could affect revenue assumptions for therapies in the same indication. (Impacts pharmaceutical pricing and commercial strategy in the biotech sector.)
- Questions around future earnings guidance despite a strong quarter - forward-looking financial expectations could influence investor sentiment and equity valuation. (Impacts equity markets and investor allocations to biotech names.)