Goldman Sachs has moved National Bank of Greece SA from a Buy rating to Neutral while simultaneously lifting its price target to EUR16.75 from EUR15.10. The change in stance comes amid recent downward revisions to earnings forecasts by two analysts for the upcoming period, according to InvestingPro data.
The Greek lender reported a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 19.0% at the end of the third quarter of 2025, positioning it as the most well-capitalized bank among its domestic peers. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the institution continues to deliver mid-teens returns on tangible equity despite maintaining a relatively high capital buffer.
InvestingPro data cited in the review indicates the bank has produced strong returns across multiple horizons, with notable performance recorded over the past three months, the last year, the past five years, and the past decade.
Goldman Sachs underlined the bank's strategic flexibility, pointing to approximately EUR1.9 billion of excess capital as of the third quarter of 2025. That surplus equates to about 14% of the bank's current market capitalization, the firm noted. While gross profit margins have been described as weak, the bank has nonetheless been profitable over the most recent twelve-month period, and analysts expect it to remain profitable during the current year.
The bank's internal CET1 target sits at 14%. Goldman Sachs suggested this target could be lowered if management pursues capital optimization measures such as synthetic risk transfers (SRTs).
Attention will shift to how National Bank of Greece plans to deploy its excess capital when it presents fiscal year 2025 results on February 27. Goldman Sachs anticipates the bank will pursue a mixture of higher ordinary payouts to shareholders alongside material loan growth.
Context and implications
The simultaneous upgrade to the price target and downgrade of the rating reflects a more nuanced view from Goldman Sachs: while the bank's valuation outlook has improved, the recommendation was tempered by near-term considerations including analyst earnings downgrades and margin pressures. The forthcoming results presentation is expected to clarify management's priorities around capital returns and lending expansion.