Analyst move and market context
Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month price target on Molson Coors Beverage Co. (TAP) to $50 from $47 while retaining a Buy rating. The revised target sits below the stock's most recent trading level of $50.82. Independent valuation data cited by the company suggests the shares may still trade below their assessed fair value.
Drivers behind the change
The target bump follows Molson Coors' mixed fourth-quarter performance and fiscal 2026 guidance that came in below market expectations. Goldman Sachs pointed to a challenging demand backdrop across the industry and a set of temporary cost headwinds - notably elevated Midwest premium aluminum costs - that contributed to the underwhelming top-line performance. Over the last twelve months Molson Coors’ revenue has declined by 4.01%.
Earnings and revenue specifics
For the fourth quarter the company reported adjusted earnings of $1.21 per share, which exceeded the analyst consensus of $1.16. However, quarterly revenue of $2.66 billion missed the $2.72 billion consensus and represented a 2.7% decline year over year. The company’s fiscal 2026 guidance also disappointed investors, with management highlighting significant commodity inflation as a potential headwind.
Analyst expectations and revisions
Goldman Sachs said Street expectations were already modest ahead of the earnings release, but the guidance fell notably short of incoming assumptions. The firm expects analyst estimates will likely be revised materially lower in response. Supporting that outlook, eight analysts have already lowered their earnings projections for the upcoming period according to available revisions data. Those downward adjustments, combined with pressured fourth-quarter results, are likely to weigh on the stock near term.
Balance-sheet and cash-generation signals
Data on the company’s financial profile rates Molson Coors' financial health as "FAIR," while its relative value metrics look stronger than several other financial-health indicators. Management has been an active buyer of shares, and the company currently offers a strong free cash flow yield of 11%. Molson Coors has also sustained dividend payments for 51 consecutive years and currently yields 3.7%.
Goldman Sachs' positioning
Goldman Sachs views the recent results and guidance as a potential opportunity to reset investor expectations down to a more achievable level. The firm is encouraged by management initiatives aimed at reaccelerating sustainable growth, but it cautioned that execution and improvements specifically in the beer category will be critical to achieving medium-term targets. Goldman acknowledged those targets could be challenging given the present industry pressures and the company’s recent performance, and that investors may react skeptically.
Investor takeaway
Goldman Sachs' unchanged Buy rating paired with a higher target reflects a guarded optimism: the bank raised its estimate of where the stock could trade in a year but still prices that target below current market levels. The combination of weaker guidance, analyst estimate downgrades, commodity-driven cost pressures, and declining revenue contrasts with attractive cash-generation metrics and ongoing shareholder returns. Investors evaluating Molson Coors will need to weigh near-term demand and cost uncertainties against the company's cash flow profile and capital returns.
Note on data - The article references contemporaneous analyst revisions, valuation assessments, cash flow yield, and dividend history as reported alongside the company's quarterly release and subsequent analyst commentary.