Goldman Sachs has moved to a Neutral rating on Rio Tinto Plc, reducing its prior Buy recommendation and lowering its price target to GBP74.00 from GBP79.00.
The miner reported underlying EBITDA for 2025 of $25.4 billion and a net profit of $10.9 billion, figures that fell short of Goldman Sachs' forecasts of $25.9 billion and $11.2 billion respectively. On a broader consensus basis, results were about 1% below Visible Alpha Consensus Data, even though EBITDA rose 9% compared with the prior year.
Market metrics underline a contrast between near-term operational headwinds and a strong share-price performance. Rio Tinto currently trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.72 and has returned 62% over the past year, while also offering a dividend yield of 5.19% as noted by InvestingPro.
Breaking down the results, aluminium was the main source of the shortfall. Aluminium EBITDA missed estimates by roughly $700 million, a gap Goldman Sachs attributes to higher costs in North America primary metals operations and reduced revenue from bauxite. That weak aluminium performance was partially offset by a stronger-than-expected copper performance, which beat estimates by about $400 million.
Balance-sheet dynamics also played a role in analysts' reactions. Rio Tinto's net debt stood at $14.4 billion, above Goldman Sachs' $12.9 billion estimate. The higher net debt position was driven in part by capital expenditure of $12.3 billion, which exceeded the $11.4 billion forecast.
On guidance, Rio Tinto left its 2026 production and capital expenditure outlook unchanged. The company reiterated Pilbara unit cost guidance of $23.50 to $25.00 per ton, a range that lines up with Goldman Sachs' internal estimate of $24.30 per ton.
Separately, regulatory and portfolio actions are adding to investor focus. The Mongolian Tax Authority has issued Rio Tinto an additional tax assessment of approximately $440 million, lifting the total potential additional tax payments to more than $1 billion. At the same time, Rio Tinto has begun market testing of certain non-core assets - specifically borates and titanium dioxide - as part of a broader $5 billion to $10 billion disposal program.
Investor resources referenced in the earnings context include InvestingPro, which continues to regard the stock as undervalued at current levels and highlights the 5.19% dividend yield. The platform also makes available a Pro Research Report on Rio Tinto and thousands of other equities for subscribers seeking deeper analysis.
In related reporting on the company’s recent trading update, Rio Tinto disclosed its financial results for the second half of 2025, noting broadly stable underlying earnings and a modest rise in EBITDA. Despite those metrics, the stock fell 3.4% in pre-market trading after the announcement. The market reaction was interpreted as mixed, with investors reacting to the company's earnings call where management discussed operational developments and reiterated future guidance. The earnings release itself did not prompt any recorded analyst upgrades or downgrades; attention now centers on how Rio Tinto will manage its operational priorities in the face of cost pressures and capital deployment choices.
What this means
- Goldman Sachs' downgrade reflects a recalibration of expectations after a modest miss on profit and EBITDA and growing concerns over costs and capital spending.
- Aluminium unit-cost pressures and higher-than-expected capex are key near-term challenges for Rio Tinto's earnings trajectory.
- The company is pursuing non-core asset sales while navigating a material tax assessment in Mongolia, both of which could affect near-term cash flows and strategic flexibility.