Analyst Ratings February 6, 2026

Goldman Reaffirms Buy on TPG, Cites Strong Fundraising and Fee Momentum

Firm lifts fee and earnings estimates as TPG posts robust fourth-quarter raises and management projects sustained fundraising above $50 billion

By Avery Klein TPG
Goldman Reaffirms Buy on TPG, Cites Strong Fundraising and Fee Momentum
TPG

Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed a Buy rating on TPG Inc. and kept a $80.00 price target, pointing to accelerated fundraising, stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter inflows and upward revisions to fee-related and distributable earnings estimates. Management and analysts cite a durable fundraising run-rate and margin improvement as key drivers for future earnings, even as the stock has slipped year-to-date.

Key Points

  • Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy rating and sets $80.00 price target, implying nearly 50% upside from $53.54.
  • Goldman now expects $50 billion of fundraising in 2026 after TPG raised $16 billion in Q4, driven mainly by the Credit segment.
  • Goldman raised FRE estimates by about 4% on average for 2026-2028 and distributable EPS by roughly 2% on average; revised EPS estimates to $3.15 (2026), $3.88 (2027) and $4.27 (2028).

Goldman Sachs has reiterated its Buy recommendation on TPG Inc. and maintained a $80.00 price target, signaling confidence in the alternative asset manager's fundraising trajectory and fee growth potential. The $80.00 target implies nearly 50% upside from TPG's prevailing market price of $53.54.

Goldman now models $50 billion of fundraising for 2026 after a fourth quarter that produced $16 billion of new capital, ahead of the firm's prior estimate of roughly $9 billion. The Credit segment accounted for most of the quarter's outperformance, according to the firm. Those fundraising results come against the backdrop of TPG's shares having fallen 16.13% year-to-date.

The investment bank raised its Fee Related Earnings, or FRE, forecasts by an average of 4% across 2026, 2027 and 2028, with the bulk of that upside traced to higher Transaction Fees following constructive remarks on deployment from TPG's management. Goldman also nudged up its Distributable Earnings per share projections by about 2% on average for the same period.

Valuation metrics cited in the analysis show a relatively low PEG ratio of 0.96, which the note characterizes as attractive relative to the company's growth outlook, while the stock continues to trade at a high P/E multiple of 46.43.

TPG's leadership views an annual fundraising level above $50 billion as a sustainable run-rate after the firm recorded $51 billion in total fundraising for 2025. Management expects that growth to be supported by continued closes across private equity flagship funds, expansion in real estate funds, insurance mandates, the rollout of new credit strategies and inflows to private wealth offerings.

On a profitability front, TPG has guided to operating margins near 47% for 2026 as operating leverage increases and capital markets revenues grow. Goldman adjusted its per-share earnings estimates for 2026, 2027 and 2028 to $3.15, $3.88 and $4.27, respectively, up from prior forecasts of $3.10, $3.79 and $4.20.

The broader analyst community continues to favor the stock, with a consensus recommendation of "Buy" and price targets spanning $62 to $83.

TPG's market capitalization stands at $20.24 billion, and the company currently offers a 3.36% dividend yield while executing its fundraising and deployment strategy.


Recent operating results showed TPG beating expectations in its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, delivering earnings per share of $0.71 versus a forecast of $0.66, a 7.58% surprise. The EPS beat occurred amid financial market volatility that has shaped investor sentiment. Despite the positive earnings surprise, shares moved lower as market participants parsed guidance and operational updates that influence expectations for future performance.

These developments have prompted analysts and market watchers to track TPG's fundraising cadence, fee conversion and margin expansion closely, since such elements will drive future FRE and distributable earnings outcomes.


Summary of analyst revisions and company metrics:

  • Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy with $80.00 price target.
  • Goldman forecasts $50 billion of fundraising in 2026 after $16 billion raised in Q4 versus an estimate of ~ $9 billion.
  • Fee Related Earnings raised about 4% on average for 2026-2028; Distributable EPS raised ~2% on average.
  • Revised EPS estimates: 2026 $3.15 (from $3.10), 2027 $3.88 (from $3.79), 2028 $4.27 (from $4.20).
  • TPG posted Q4 2025 EPS of $0.71 versus a $0.66 forecast, a 7.58% surprise.
  • Key valuation metrics: PEG 0.96, P/E 46.43; market cap $20.24 billion; dividend yield 3.36%.

Investors assessing TPG will be weighing the stronger fundraising and fee momentum against the company's high earnings multiple and recent share price weakness. Close monitoring of capital deployment, credit business performance and fee realization will be important for judging whether recent outperformance in fundraising translates into sustained earnings growth.

Risks

  • Stock remains volatile and has declined 16.13% year-to-date, reflecting investor sensitivity to guidance and operational updates - impacts equity markets and asset management sector.
  • High P/E multiple of 46.43 could leave shares vulnerable if fee conversion or margin expansion disappoints - impacts valuation-sensitive investors in financials.
  • Ongoing dependence on continued fundraising and successful deployment across private equity, real estate, credit strategies and private wealth; any shortfall would affect FRE and distributable earnings - impacts alternative asset management and institutional capital markets.

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