Analyst Ratings February 10, 2026

Goldman Lifts Plains All American Target to $17 After Mixed Q4 Results; Sell Rating Retained

Analysts focus on efficiency levers, capital allocation and potential M&A as company issues 2026 EBITDA guidance with NGL caveat

By Leila Farooq PAA
Goldman Lifts Plains All American Target to $17 After Mixed Q4 Results; Sell Rating Retained
PAA

Goldman Sachs increased its price target on Plains All American (PAA) to $17.00 from $16.00 but kept a Sell rating following the company's fourth-quarter 2025 results. The firm's assessment described the quarter as mixed, with crude strength offset by softer NGL results. Management set 2026 EBITDA guidance of $2.675 billion to $2.825 billion, which incorporates a limited NGL contribution tied to an expected sale. Other analysts have continued to raise targets or affirm constructive views despite the earnings miss.

Key Points

  • Goldman Sachs raised its price target on Plains All American to $17.00 from $16.00 but retained a Sell rating after mixed fourth-quarter 2025 results.
  • Management guided 2026 EBITDA to $2.675 billion - $2.825 billion, which includes a one-quarter, $100 million NGL contribution tied to an expected sale.
  • Analysts remain engaged: Scotiabank lifted its target to $23.00 while UBS kept a Buy with a $25.00 target, citing capture efficiencies and cost-savings initiatives.

Goldman Sachs has raised its price target for Plains All American (NASDAQ: PAA) to $17.00 from $16.00 while maintaining a Sell recommendation after the company's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release. The stock is trading around $19.29 and sits close to its 52-week high of $20.77, with InvestingPro characterizing the shares as appearing undervalued.

Goldman described Plains' quarterly performance as "mixed," pointing to a stronger crude oil operating picture that was partially offset by weaker natural gas liquids (NGL) results. Management provided 2026 EBITDA guidance in a range of $2.675 billion to $2.825 billion. That outlook includes a one-quarter, $100 million NGL contribution tied to an expected sale that has not yet closed.

The company reported $2.33 billion in EBITDA for the last twelve months, and InvestingPro data assigns the business a "GOOD" overall financial health score. Goldman highlighted several internal drivers that underpin the 2026 outlook: $50 million of cost efficiencies, $50 million of optimization and marketing upside, and roughly $30 million of estimated upside related to a FERC rebate and tariff escalator adjustments.

Those upside elements are intended to help counteract headwinds, including the anticipated loss of NGL-related EBITDA, recontracting pressures and flat production expectations in the Permian basin. Despite subdued gross profit margins of 6.04% across the most recent twelve months, Plains reported diluted earnings per share of $1.12 over the same period, indicating continued profitability.

Goldman also set out a number of downside scenarios. The firm noted potential EBITDA pressure if the crude price environment softens or if marketing contributions fail to meet expectations. Goldman’s own EBITDA estimate of $2.993 billion, when adjusted to remove NGL contributions from the second through fourth quarters of 2026, sits nearer to the midpoint of management’s guidance range.

Market characteristics of the stock were also noted. Plains carries a relatively low beta of 0.57, suggesting the shares tend to move with lower volatility than the broader market. Looking forward, Goldman expects investor attention to center on further efficiency gains and potential M&A activity, particularly how the company intends to allocate capital after announcing a move to 150% coverage. The balance between share buybacks and smaller, bolt-on acquisitions will be closely watched.

Other broker activity around Plains followed the earnings release. The company’s fourth-quarter results missed analyst expectations on both the bottom and top lines: EPS came in at $0.40 versus an expected $0.47, and revenue was $10.57 billion compared with a forecast of $13.42 billion.

Scotiabank increased its price target to $23.00 from $22.00 while maintaining a Sector Outperform rating, noting that the company’s 2026 EBITDA guidance implies $2.75 billion at the midpoint, which aligns with consensus. UBS reiterated a Buy rating with a $25.00 price target and emphasized capture efficiency initiatives that could generate about $100 million in cost savings through 2027, with roughly half of those savings expected to materialize by 2026.

Collectively, the analyst activity reflects continuing confidence among some firms in the franchise’s ability to extract efficiencies and pursue growth options, even as the latest quarterly metrics undershot expectations.

Risks

  • EBITDA could be pressured if the crude price environment weakens - this impacts energy producers and midstream transport and marketing segments.
  • Marketing contribution shortfalls would reduce expected upside from optimization efforts - affecting Plains’ revenue mix and margins in the midstream sector.
  • Loss of NGL EBITDA from the expected sale and recontracting headwinds, together with flat Permian production, could constrain growth and profitability for midstream services.

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