Goldman Sachs has raised its price target for MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) to $34.00 while continuing to classify the casino and hospitality operator as a Sell. The bank's move follows MGM's pre-announcement and subsequent fourth-quarter results, which combined stronger-than-expected topline metrics with details that moderated the underlying operating picture.
At the time of the note, MGM shares were trading at $36.28 and carried a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.65, reflecting a relatively rich earnings multiple on current market prices.
Goldman highlighted that fourth-quarter Las Vegas performance was aided by roughly $20 million in favorable hold. Adjusting for that item, the firm estimated that underlying Las Vegas EBITDAR fell by 6.5% in the period. Despite this drag on underlying Vegas results, Goldman's model produced a modest increase in its 2026 EBITDAR projection - lifted by about 2% to $5.3 billion.
The analyst write-up noted management commentary pointing to several potential tailwinds, including easier year-over-year comparisons, an uptick in convention activity, and the benefit of lapping a $65 million MGM Grand renovation headwind. However, Goldman views these improvements as more likely to materialize in the second half of 2026 rather than immediately.
MGM China was singled out as a bright spot in the results, outperforming expectations and offsetting softer Macau trends that other regional operators have reported recently. That relative strength in the China business contributed to the firm’s more constructive EBITDAR outlook for 2026 even as Las Vegas pressures persist.
Separately, MGM reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that exceeded consensus. The company delivered EPS of $1.23 versus the $0.61 analysts had expected. Revenue in the quarter reached $4.61 billion, above the $4.42 billion forecast. Despite the upside on profitability and revenue, the stock declined following the release amid broader market concerns.
Outside of Goldman Sachs' note, Stifel has also updated its view on the company, raising its price target from $45 to $50 and maintaining a Buy rating. Stifel's thesis emphasizes the potential for Las Vegas Strip EBITDA growth in the latter half of 2026, a view that contrasts with Goldman's more cautious stance until clearer signs of leisure consumer recovery emerge.
In sum, analysts have adjusted models and targets in response to MGM’s latest numbers: Goldman Sachs remains guarded and holds a Sell rating while modestly increasing its 2026 EBITDAR and setting a lower price target than the current trading level; other firms, such as Stifel, have taken a more optimistic posture on longer-dated operational recovery.
What this means for markets
- The casino and leisure sector is experiencing mixed signals: solid headline earnings and revenue for MGM coexist with underlying softness in Las Vegas operations.
- Analyst divergence - Sell from Goldman and Buy from Stifel - highlights varied interpretations of the timing and durability of a recovery in the Las Vegas leisure consumer segment.
- Investors will likely watch Las Vegas hold-adjusted metrics and convention activity as key near-term indicators of operational improvement.