Summary
Goldman Sachs has raised its target price on Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (NASDAQ: PAGP) to $17.00 from $16.00 but kept its Sell rating in place after the company released fourth-quarter 2025 results. The bank highlighted a mixed operating performance in the quarter, where softer NGL margins were partly counterbalanced by stronger crude results. At the same time, management issued full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance and completed a $750 million senior notes transaction through the company’s subsidiaries.
Key points
- Goldman raised its price target to $17.00 from $16.00 while maintaining a Sell rating; the stock was trading at $20.68 and near a 52-week high of $21.97, implying material downside to Goldman’s target.
- Plains reported a split quarter with weaker NGL performance and stronger crude results; the company posted a diluted EPS of -$0.62 over the last twelve months but analysts forecast an EPS of $6.86 in 2026.
- Management’s 2026 EBITDA guidance sits at $2.675-2.825 billion, which includes a one-quarter $100 million NGL contribution prior to an expected sale closing and compares to LTM EBITDA of $2.3 billion as of Q4 2025.
Operating results and analyst context
Goldman Sachs characterized Plains GP’s fourth-quarter performance as mixed, noting that weaker NGL results were partially offset by firmer crude oil results. InvestingPro-sourced analyst targets for the stock span from $17 to $26. The company’s trailing twelve months produced a diluted loss per share of -$0.62, though sell-side forecasts show anticipated profitability in 2026 with an EPS estimate of $6.86.
2026 guidance and drivers
For 2026 the company guided to EBITDA of $2.675-2.825 billion. That guidance range incorporates a $100 million NGL contribution expected for one quarter before a planned sale closes. Management’s guidance is supported by identified drivers that include $50 million in cost efficiencies, $50 million from optimization and marketing upside, and roughly $30 million tied to an estimated FERC rebate and tariff escalator upside. Those items are intended to help offset several headwinds cited by management, including the loss of NGL EBITDA, recontracting pressures and an expectation of flat Permian production.
Capital allocation, dividend and analyst caveats
Plains GP continues to offer a substantial dividend yield; InvestingPro data shows an 8.07% yield and that the company has increased its dividend for four consecutive years. Goldman Sachs flagged downside risk to EBITDA if the crude oil environment softens or if marketing contributions do not materialize as expected. The bank also noted that future emphasis will shift toward securing efficiency gains and pursuing M&A to drive growth, with particular attention on capital allocation decisions after an announced move to 150% coverage.
Debt issuance
Separately, Plains GP announced the completion of a $750 million senior notes offering executed through subsidiaries Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. and PAA Finance Corp. The offering consisted of two tranches: $300 million of 4.700% Senior Notes due 2031 and $450 million of 5.600% Senior Notes due 2036. These tranches were issued as additional amounts to series originally issued on September 8, 2025, bringing the outstanding principal for each series to $1 billion. The 2031 and 2036 notes carry identical terms and CUSIP numbers to their initial issuances and trade interchangeably.
Market positioning and outlook
With the stock trading at $20.68 and close to a 52-week high of $21.97, Goldman’s adjusted $17.00 target implies a sizeable potential downside from prevailing market levels. Analysts and management have pointed to both operational levers and market risks that will determine whether 2026 targets are met, while the recent notes offering changes the company’s debt profile by increasing outstanding principal in the existing series to $1 billion each.
Risks and uncertainties
- EBITDA sensitivity to crude prices - a weaker crude oil environment could depress earnings, affecting energy and midstream sector returns.
- Marketing contributions shortfall - if optimization and marketing upside fail to materialize, Plains may face earnings pressure, influencing midstream cash flows and pipeline marketing activities.
- Contraction in NGL volumes or recontracting headwinds - loss of NGL EBITDA and recontracting issues could weigh on financial performance, impacting oil and gas midstream economics.
This report summarizes the company disclosures, analyst actions and the debt issuance as presented in company statements and analyst communications.