Analyst Ratings February 24, 2026

Freedom Capital nudges up MDU Resources target as utility businesses drive gains

Analyst raises price objective to $21 while keeping a Hold stance after mixed fiscal 2025 results and guidance for 2026

By Caleb Monroe MDU
Freedom Capital nudges up MDU Resources target as utility businesses drive gains
MDU

Freedom Capital Markets increased its 12-month price target on MDU Resources Group Inc. to $21 from $20 and left its rating at Hold. The move follows the company’s fiscal 2025 results, which showed flat revenue, materially higher net income and segment differences: electric utility growth, weaker natural gas distribution sales due to milder weather, and record pipeline profitability. Management issued 2026 EPS guidance and reiterated a multi-year growth outlook amid a $3.1 billion capital plan for 2026-2030.

Key Points

  • Freedom Capital Markets increased its MDU price target to $21 from $20 and maintained a Hold rating, reflecting modest upward revision but cautious stance.
  • Fiscal 2025 results showed flat revenue of $534 million, net income of $76 million (up 38% year over year) and EPS of $0.37; income from continuing operations exceeded the FactSet consensus of $71 million.
  • MDU’s electric utility business recorded double-digit revenue growth while natural gas distribution declined due to warmer weather; pipeline operations delivered a record annual profit supported by capital expansions and strong short-term contract demand.

Freedom Capital Markets raised its price target on MDU Resources Group Inc. (MDU) to $21 from $20 while maintaining a Hold rating on the shares.

MDU reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue of $534 million, essentially unchanged from the prior year. The company recorded net income of $76 million for the quarter, a 38% increase year over year, translating to earnings per share of $0.37. Income from continuing operations rose 8% year over year and topped the FactSet consensus of $71 million.

On valuation and returns, the company has a market capitalization of $4.1 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.49 and a dividend yield of 2.79%. According to InvestingPro Tips cited in the company summary, MDU has sustained dividend payments for 56 consecutive years.

Segment results were uneven in the period. The electric utility business delivered double-digit revenue gains, while natural gas distribution revenue declined, a drop management attributed to warmer-than-normal weather. The pipeline segment posted a record annual profit as capital expansions continued and demand for short-term firm contracts remained robust.

Fiscal 2025 represented the first full year in which MDU operated exclusively as a regulated utility and pipeline company. During the year, the company expanded its regulated rate base by 16% versus the prior year, a figure that reflects, among other items, the acquisition of a 49% stake in Badger Wind.

Management provided earnings guidance for 2026, projecting EPS in a range of $0.93 to $1.00. The company also reaffirmed its long-term earnings growth objective of 6% to 8% compound annual growth. Looking further ahead, MDU outlined a $3.1 billion capital plan covering 2026 through 2030.

Independent analysis flagged in the company notes indicates that the stock appears overvalued relative to its Fair Value estimate. Additional proprietary tips and extended analysis on MDU and more than 1,400 U.S. equities are available through InvestingPro for investors seeking deeper data and valuation models.

In a separate review of the fourth-quarter results, the company’s EPS of $0.37 matched analyst expectations, but revenue fell short of forecasted figures, coming in below the anticipated $560.72 million. The revenue shortfall and the mixed nature of segment performance are likely factors investors and analysts will continue to monitor as management implements its capital plan and navigates regulated operations.


Contextual note: The facts above summarize the company’s reported results, management guidance and the analyst action described. No additional forecasts or speculative conclusions are presented beyond the figures and statements provided by the company and the analyst change.

Risks

  • Revenue vulnerability from weather-sensitive operations: the natural gas distribution business declined amid warmer weather, underscoring weather exposure in the utilities sector.
  • Valuation risk: external analysis suggests the stock may be overvalued relative to its Fair Value estimate, which could affect investor returns in the regulated utility and pipeline sectors if market sentiment shifts.
  • Execution and capital deployment risk: management’s $3.1 billion 2026-2030 capital plan and the expanded regulated rate base (up 16% year over year) increase the importance of timely project execution and rate-recovery mechanisms for regulated businesses.

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