Analyst Ratings February 13, 2026

Freedom Capital Markets Starts Coverage of Natural Grocers With Buy Rating and $36 Target

Analyst cites defensive food-retail positioning, disciplined store economics and conservative balance sheet as foundations for medium-term earnings growth

By Sofia Navarro NGVC
Freedom Capital Markets Starts Coverage of Natural Grocers With Buy Rating and $36 Target
NGVC

Freedom Capital Markets opened coverage of Natural Grocers (NGVC) with a Buy rating and a $36.00 price objective, implying roughly 40% upside from the current share price of $25.86. The firm highlighted the retailer's small-format, natural-and-organic grocery model, everyday value pricing, measured unit growth and conservative balance sheet. Recent results for the first quarter of 2026 showed EPS of $0.49, up 14%, and net sales of $335.6 million, up 1.6%. The company is also preparing to enter Wisconsin with a Lake Geneva store, bringing its footprint to 168 stores across 22 states.

Key Points

  • Freedom Capital Markets initiated coverage on Natural Grocers with a Buy rating and a $36.00 price target, implying nearly 40% upside from the current price of $25.86.
  • The firm highlighted Natural Grocers' small-format natural and organic grocery model, emphasis on everyday value pricing, disciplined cost control and consistent store-level execution; it noted a P/E of 12.6 despite a significant stock decline over the last six months.
  • Natural Grocers reported first-quarter 2026 EPS of $0.49 - up 14% - and net sales of $335.6 million - up 1.6% - and is expanding into Wisconsin with a Lake Geneva store, moving to 168 stores across 22 states.

Freedom Capital Markets has begun covering Natural Grocers (NYSE: NGVC) with a Buy recommendation and set a price target of $36.00, which represents nearly 40% upside relative to the current trading price of $25.86.

The research note emphasizes the company's niche in natural and organic foods, dietary supplements and wellness products, delivered through a small-format store strategy across the United States. Freedom Capital Markets pointed to an attractive valuation metric, with the stock trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6, even after a notable decline in the share price over the past six months.

Analysts at Freedom described Natural Grocers as operating in a defensive segment of food retail that benefits from steady demand and long-term tailwinds related to consumer preferences for health, nutrition and ingredient transparency. They drew attention to the company's business model pillars: everyday value pricing, disciplined cost control and consistent store-level execution.

Those operational features, the firm said, are supported by a cautious unit growth strategy and a conservative balance sheet - attributes it believes will help the chain produce steady earnings growth and attractive risk-adjusted returns over the medium term.

Recent company results provide context for that view. For the first quarter of 2026, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc reported earnings per share of $0.49, a 14% increase compared with the prior period. Net sales rose 1.6%, reaching $335.6 million for the quarter. The retailer currently operates 168 stores across 21 states and has announced an expansion into Wisconsin - its 22nd state - with a Lake Geneva location scheduled to open this spring.

Freedom Capital Markets' initiation of coverage arrives at a moment when the stock's valuation appears relatively modest by the P/E cited, yet the share price has experienced a material pullback in the last six months. The research note did not document any recent analyst upgrades or downgrades, but it underscored investor interest in the company's combination of operational discipline and balance-sheet conservatism.


Summary takeaway - Freedom Capital Markets views Natural Grocers as a defensively positioned specialty grocer with a small-format, value-focused model, conservative financial posture and measured growth plan, and assigns a Buy rating with a $36 price target.

Risks

  • The stock has fallen significantly over the past six months, indicating recent price weakness that could persist and affect investor returns - impacts equity investors and the broader stocks sector.
  • Net sales growth was modest at 1.6% in the first quarter of 2026, which could signal limited top-line momentum - relevant to retail and consumer staples market participants.
  • There have been no recent analyst upgrades or downgrades reported, suggesting limited new external consensus signals for investors to reference - affecting investor confidence in the stocks sector.

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