Overview
Freedom Capital Markets moved Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) from a Hold rating to Buy on Thursday and increased its price target to $76 from $47. At the time of the note, the stock was trading at $64.34, up roughly 63% over the last 12 months and trading near its 52-week high of $69.44.
Analyst rationale
The upgrade reflects the firm’s view that Freeport-McMoRan is well positioned to benefit from a recovery in copper prices amid expectations of tighter supply. Freedom Capital Markets highlighted the company’s scale in copper production, noting it controls approximately 9% of global copper supply. The firm also pointed out Freeport-McMoRan’s material byproduct output, identifying the company as a significant producer of molybdenum and placing it among the top-10 global gold producers when excluding China.
The $76 price target is grounded in a multiple-based valuation: a 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to the average of the 2026-2027 EBITDA estimates used in the firm’s model. Freedom Capital Markets indicated that this multiple incorporates expectations about operational timing at key assets.
Operational timing and Grasberg
Freedom Capital Markets explicitly noted uncertainty related to the ramp-up at the Grasberg minerals district, with normalization targeted for the second half of 2026. The firm said its valuation multiple takes this operational timeline into account.
Valuation perspective
Separate analysis cited in the note described the stock as appearing overvalued relative to its Fair Value and referenced additional subscriber-level guidance for investors assessing the company’s risk-reward profile. Those supplemental materials reportedly include 13 further analytical tips for evaluating the company.
Assets and byproducts
Freeport-McMoRan operates a portfolio of copper mining assets that produce meaningful quantities of molybdenum and gold as byproducts, which the analyst note reiterated as an element of the company’s revenue mix.
Agreement with Indonesia and ownership terms
The company recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Indonesian government authorities to extend its operating rights in the Grasberg minerals district, allowing it to continue operations beyond the current license expiration in 2041. Under the terms described in the note, Freeport-McMoRan will retain a 48.76% ownership interest in its PT Freeport Indonesia subsidiary through 2041. After that date, the company will transfer a 12% share to Indonesian government interests at no cost, reducing its stake to approximately 37%.
Other broker moves and market drivers
In related broker activity, Scotiabank raised its price target for Freeport-McMoRan to $72 while maintaining a Sector Outperform rating. Argus upgraded the rating from Hold to Buy, citing a strengthened balance sheet and the benefits of elevated copper prices. The stock experienced modest sensitivity to reports that the Trump administration is considering rolling back tariffs on steel and aluminum products. Separately, Freeport-McMoRan’s shares rose as copper prices reached a record above $14,000 per metric ton, a move the note attributed to speculative buying and strong demand expectations.
Implications
The combination of analyst upgrades, elevated commodity prices, and evolving operating agreements at Grasberg underscores shifting dynamics and potential opportunities for Freeport-McMoRan in the current market environment.