Overview
Freedom Capital Markets has downgraded BP (BP) from Hold to Sell, while leaving its price target unchanged at $37.00. That target sits close to BP’s then-current trading level of $37.19.
Context for the downgrade
The research house pointed to BP’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, which it described as "soft" but "broadly in line with expectations." The downgrade also reflects the suspension of BP’s share repurchase program amid weakening crude prices, a move cited in the firm’s note.
Dividend stance and company comments
BP continued to declare a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per ADR, implying a yield of roughly 5.13%. Company management has reiterated a commitment to protecting the dividend payment even under lower crude price scenarios. Data referenced in the report indicate BP has paid dividends for 35 consecutive years.
Analyst concerns
Freedom Capital Markets explicitly flagged the risk that "further softness in oil markets in 2026 could weigh materially on earnings." That possibility was a key element in the decision to reduce the rating despite the unchanged price target.
Financial results and impairments
BP’s fourth-quarter 2025 financials showed a Q4 underlying replacement cost profit of $1.5 billion. The company also reported an IFRS loss of $3.4 billion, driven in part by $4 billion of impairments. The report noted that, in spite of these headline figures and strategic moves, the stock has displayed some resilience.
Other recent analyst moves
- HSBC downgraded BP’s rating from Hold to Reduce and set a price target of GBP4.30.
- Piper Sandler increased its price target to $44.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing the suspension of the buyback program.
- Melius Research moved its recommendation from Hold to Sell, with a new price target of $31.00, pointing to challenges as BP pivots back toward oil and gas.
Takeaway
The cluster of analyst actions demonstrates differing views on BP’s near-term outlook and strategic direction. Freedom Capital Markets’ downgrade centers on the potential for continued weakness in oil prices in 2026 to put meaningful pressure on earnings, even as the company seeks to preserve its dividend and navigate impairment-related charges reported in Q4 2025.
Key details
- Downgrade: Freedom Capital Markets - Hold to Sell; price target maintained at $37.00.
- BP trading reference: $37.19 at time cited relative to the $37.00 target.
- Q4 2025: underlying replacement cost profit $1.5 billion; IFRS loss $3.4 billion due to $4 billion of impairments.
- Dividend: $0.50 per ADR, yield approximately 5.13%; company reaffirmed commitment to protecting the dividend; 35 consecutive years of payments noted.