Freedom Capital Markets raised its recommendation on Waystar Holding (NASDAQ: WAY) to Buy from Hold on Tuesday, while setting a new price target of $33.00, down from the prior $40.00.
The upgrade follows Waystar’s fourth-quarter financial results, which surpassed expectations, and management’s initial fiscal 2026 guidance that outperformed consensus on EBITDA while revenue projections were in line with estimates. Freedom noted the stock has fallen more than 30% since the firm began covering the company in November, attributing that decline to investor concerns about potential disruption from artificial intelligence.
In its note, Freedom Capital Markets characterized the share price decline as excessive and stated that current levels meaningfully reduce the company’s risk profile. The firm pointed to Waystar’s adoption of AI across its platform and ongoing investments in agentic AI as constructive developments. It highlighted Waystar’s domain expertise, extensive network, and integrated platform as elements that comprise a competitive moat against peers.
Operationally, the analyst house cited an improvement in the company’s sales performance, noting win rates have increased to 85% from 80% over the past year. Based on these trends and the discounted valuation following the wider software sector downturn, Freedom recommended buying Waystar as a way to acquire exposure during a software downdraft.
Despite the upgrade, Freedom trimmed its price target from $40 to $33. The reduction reflects the company’s cash and debt position after the Iodine acquisition and a lower perpetuity growth rate used in Freedom’s discounted cash flow model. The firm explicitly tied the target cut to balance sheet considerations arising from the transaction and a more conservative terminal growth assumption.
Separately, Waystar reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $304 million, a 24% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share of $0.36, which exceeded market expectations. Those results underscore the company’s recent revenue momentum and profit delivery in the quarter.
Other analysts have also revised their views. Citizens reduced its price target on Waystar from $48 to $34 while keeping a Market Outperform rating. Citizens attributed the lower target to broad multiple compression across the software sector and anchored the new target to a 15x multiple applied to a revised 2026 EBITDA estimate of $533 million.
Taken together, the analyst actions reflect diverging adjustments: an upgraded recommendation based on relative valuation and product positioning, alongside lower headline targets that account for acquisition-related balance sheet changes and sector-wide valuation pressure. Investors will be watching how Waystar’s AI investments translate into durable competitive advantages and whether the company’s post-acquisition capital structure affects near-term flexibility.