Analyst Ratings February 17, 2026

Freedom Capital Markets Cuts Fortinet to Hold, Cites Valuation Despite Strong Q4 Results

Analysts raise price targets even as one shop downgrades on stretched multiples; product revenue and billings posted double-digit gains

By Marcus Reed FTNT
Freedom Capital Markets Cuts Fortinet to Hold, Cites Valuation Despite Strong Q4 Results
FTNT

Freedom Capital Markets downgraded Fortinet (FTNT) from Buy to Hold while keeping a $90 price target, pointing to valuation pressures as the primary concern. The cybersecurity vendor reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results driven by a broad network equipment refresh cycle, with notable gains in product revenue and billings. Multiple other brokerages responded by lifting price targets, reflecting a mix of optimism about product momentum and caution around service growth, input costs and currency swings.

Key Points

  • Freedom Capital Markets downgraded Fortinet to Hold from Buy, maintaining a $90 price target due to valuation concerns.
  • Fortinet posted Q4 2025 results above expectations, with product revenue up 20% and billings up 18%, aided by a large-scale network equipment refresh cycle.
  • Several other brokerages raised or maintained price targets (TD Cowen $100, BMO $95, RBC $90, UBS $90, Jefferies $90), reflecting broadly positive reactions to product momentum despite mixed service growth.

Freedom Capital Markets moved Fortinet (NASDAQ: FTNT) to a Hold rating from Buy on Monday, maintaining a price target of $90. The firm said current valuation levels underpin the downgrade, noting that Fortinet trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.65.

The downgrade comes even as Fortinet reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that surpassed market expectations and its own guidance. The company cited the launch of a large-scale network equipment refresh cycle as a key driver behind the better-than-expected quarter. Product revenue climbed by 20% year-over-year and billings rose 18% year-over-year, figures that several brokerages highlighted when updating their assessments.

Service revenue showed steady growth, supported by expanding Unified SASE cloud offerings and the integration of recent acquisitions, though the company noted some customer caution around contract lengths. Gross profit margins remain robust at 80.46%, based on InvestingPro data, a level that underscores the companys current profitability profile.

Despite solid near-term results, Freedom Capital Markets flagged valuation as the central issue supporting its move to Hold. InvestingPro data referenced in the analyst commentary also shows that 30 analysts have revised earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period, a trend that the downgrade note cited as relevant to the stocks risk-reward profile.

Other brokerages reacted to Fortinets quarterly release with mostly constructive adjustments to their price targets and recommendations. TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating and kept a $100 price target. BMO Capital lifted its target to $95, noting results exceeded consensus even as service revenue growth lagged expectations. RBC Capital raised its target to $90, describing the quarter as having beaten prevailing concerns and potentially laying groundwork for 2026. UBS also increased its target to $90, pointing to strong product performance and improved Enterprise License Agreement renewals. Jefferies moved its price target to $90, emphasizing that the companys 18% billings growth outpaced an expected 12%.

Analysts and the company itself are balancing the positive top-line indicators against a set of uncertainties that could pressure future margins and growth. Specifically, the analyst note highlighted risks from potential margin compression tied to rising memory prices and currency volatility. Competitive dynamics in the cybersecurity market were also listed as a factor that could challenge long-term expansion.

Freedom Capital Markets retained its $90 price objective even as it shifted the rating lower, signaling that while the firm views the shares as fairly valued at present, it recognizes the strength in the recent operating results. The market response from other brokerages reflects a split view: many see the quarterly performance as validation of product momentum, while some caveats remain around services and cost pressures.


Bottom line: Fortinet delivered stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results with notable product and billings growth, but Freedom Capital Markets downgraded the stock to Hold citing valuation concerns; several other firms raised price targets, reflecting a mix of optimism on product momentum and caution on future margin pressures.

Risks

  • Valuation risk: Fortinets P/E of 33.65 was cited as a primary reason for the downgrade, affecting investor returns in the technology and cybersecurity sectors.
  • Margin pressure from rising memory prices and currency volatility could compress gross margins and weigh on profitability, impacting enterprise tech suppliers and hardware vendors.
  • Competitive intensity in the cybersecurity market may limit long-term growth rates and put pressure on pricing and renewal dynamics, influencing both software and services providers.

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