Evercore ISI raised its price target on Post Holdings (NYSE: POST) to $131.00 from $129.00 and kept an Outperform rating on the stock. The upgrade in target comes as the firm highlights better-than-anticipated results in Post's foodservice business and continued capital returns to shareholders.
Post shares are trading at $114.61 and have recently moved higher, with a 13.15% gain over the last week and a 15.71% increase year-to-date, based on InvestingPro figures. Those same InvestingPro metrics indicate the stock looks undervalued relative to its Fair Value assessment.
Foodservice momentum and margin mix
Evercore ISI pointed to the foodservice division as a key reason for the revised target. That unit accounts for roughly 33% of Post's EBITDA and is anchored by the Michael Foods egg business. Within Michael Foods, value-added egg products are expanding, representing about 30% of Michael Foods' sales. Evercore emphasizes that these value-added eggs deliver roughly four times the margin of cracked eggs, improving overall profitability for the segment.
Across the company, total reported EBITDA for the trailing twelve months stands at $1.42 billion. InvestingPro's analytics rate Post Holdings' overall financial health as "GOOD."
Model adjustments and channel performance
Following recent operating developments, Evercore lifted its EBITDA estimates by 3% for fiscal 2026 and by 1% for fiscal 2027. The firm highlighted growth in several channels - including specialty coffee and convenience stores - and noted disciplined cost management within the Post Consumer Brands business. Analysts also cited expected synergies arising from the 8th Avenue acquisition as supportive to margins.
Capital allocation and balance sheet
Management has been directing increased free cash flow toward share repurchases. Post has bought back about 10% of its outstanding shares over the past four months, while keeping net leverage around 4.5x. Evercore framed these repurchases as an important element of shareholder value creation and listed Post as its preferred value play in the food sector, with future upside contingent on stabilizing trends in the Post Consumer Brands segment and the potential for mergers and acquisitions.
Market context and analyst range
Post Holdings' market capitalization is approximately $5.5 billion. Analyst price targets currently span from $113 to $150, leaving scope for upside under consensus estimates. InvestingPro notes that four analysts have recently revised earnings estimates upward for the coming reporting period, a signal the firm views as reinforcing the positive outlook.
Recent quarterly results
In its first quarter of fiscal 2026, Post reported earnings that fell short of expectations. The company posted diluted earnings per share of $0.37, compared with a projected $1.68. Revenue for the quarter was $537.3 million, below forecasts of $2.18 billion. Despite these misses on headline EPS and revenue, Post experienced an uptick in pre-market trading activity, a reaction Evercore and market observers attribute in part to strong adjusted EBITDA and an increased full-year guidance.
These mixed signals - weaker-than-expected GAAP top-line and EPS alongside stronger adjusted profitability and improved guidance - mean investors and analysts will be watching subsequent results and guidance closely as the fiscal year unfolds.
Context for investors
Evercore's view positions Post as a value-oriented name in the packaged foods space, with near-term upside dependent on a resolution of volatility within Post Consumer Brands and successful execution on cost and integration initiatives. The combination of stronger foodservice margins, channel growth, and active share repurchases underpin the firm's rationale for increasing its price target and maintaining an Outperform stance.
Note: Financial metrics and analyst comments referenced here are drawn from investing-licensed data sources cited in company and analyst releases.