Evercore ISI has pared its 12-month price target on MetLife Inc. stock (NYSE:MET) to $95.00 from $97.00, but the research firm retained an "In Line" rating on the insurer. The revised target represents roughly a 22% upside from MetLife's most recent share price of $77.92.
The 2% reduction in the target follows MetLife's fourth-quarter 2025 results and the company’s 2026 outlook announcement. Despite trimming the target, Evercore ISI left its 2026 and 2027 earnings per share estimates for MetLife unchanged.
According to InvestingPro data cited alongside the note, MetLife is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.53 and the consensus analyst recommendation sits at 1.88, reflecting a generally favorable analyst view.
Evercore ISI tied the price target adjustment to an accounting change involving the company's real estate holdings. The firm said the modification will reduce MetLife's corporate loss, but characterized the accounting move as "uneconomic" and said it is unlikely to affect free cash flows.
While acknowledging that removing non-cash real estate depreciation is "the right economic decision," Evercore also flagged that the change will probably lower free cash flow conversion marginally. The firm added that the adjustment implies a larger impact on its 2026 and 2027 estimates than it had previously built into its valuation.
Separately, MetLife reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.58 for the fourth quarter of 2025, ahead of analysts' expectations of $2.34. The company nonetheless recorded a revenue shortfall of 12.5% versus forecasts. Evercore's note and the earnings release together frame a mixed set of signals for investors, with an EPS beat offset by a notable revenue miss.
Investors and analysts are likely to weigh the accounting-driven price-target change alongside the earnings beat and revenue shortfall as they assess the company's near-term outlook. The Evercore note emphasizes that the accounting change is expected to alter reported losses and marginally affect free cash flow conversion, while not changing the firm's EPS trajectory for 2026 and 2027.
Summary
Evercore ISI reduced its MetLife price target to $95 from $97 after the insurer's Q4 2025 report and 2026 outlook, maintaining an "In Line" rating and keeping its 2026-27 EPS estimates intact. The cut reflects an accounting change tied to real estate that Evercore called "uneconomic" and unlikely to materially change free cash flows. MetLife posted adjusted Q4 EPS of $2.58, beating the $2.34 estimate, while revenue missed by 12.5%.
Key points
- Evercore ISI trimmed MetLife's price target to $95 from $97 but kept an "In Line" rating and unchanged 2026-27 EPS estimates.
- The target reduction is linked to an accounting modification on real estate that lowers reported corporate loss but is described as "uneconomic" and unlikely to materially affect free cash flow.
- MetLife's adjusted Q4 2025 EPS of $2.58 topped the $2.34 consensus, while revenue fell short by 12.5%.
Risks and uncertainties
- The accounting change related to real estate could marginally reduce free cash flow conversion - this affects corporate cash-flow metrics used by investors and analysts.
- A significant revenue shortfall of 12.5% despite an EPS beat introduces uncertainty around top-line momentum for the insurance sector and related financials.
- Evercore indicated the real estate adjustment may have a larger impact on 2026 and 2027 estimates than previously modeled, creating potential volatility in forward estimates and valuation.