Summary
Evercore ISI has moved its target price on AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) down to $750 from $835 but retained an Outperform rating, leaving the new target well above the companys prevailing share price of $456.81. The revision follows what Evercore called a "solid beat-and-raise Q4," in which AppLovin topped revenue and EBITDA forecasts and demonstrated notable margin expansion. At the same time, Evercore adjusted its valuation framework, lowering the FY27 target EV/EBITDA multiple to reflect weaker growth-adjusted multiples across the Internet and interactive entertainment areas.
Quarterly performance and metrics
AppLovins fourth-quarter results outpaced Street estimates, with revenue coming in 3% higher and EBITDA 5% above consensus. InvestingPro-sourced figures cited in company analysis show a gross profit margin of 79.69% and a strong financial health rating. On a year-over-year basis, Q4 revenue rose 66% and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by seven percentage points to 84.4%. The company reported a 96% year-over-year incremental margin and InvestingPro data noted 98.48% revenue growth over the trailing twelve months.
Evercore also highlighted AppLovins Q1 guidance, which called for quarter-over-quarter revenue growth of 5-7%, a range the firm said satisfied investor expectations.
Changes to forecasts and valuation
Following the Q4 results, Evercore raised its model assumptions, increasing FY26 Revenue and EBITDA estimates by 4% and 6% respectively, and raising FY27 Revenue and EBITDA by 4% and 4% respectively. Despite these upward revisions to operating forecasts, the firm trimmed its terminal valuation assumption for FY27, cutting the target EV/EBITDA multiple to 30x from 35x. Evercore attributed the multiple reduction to broader declines in growth-adjusted valuation multiples across peers in the Internet and interactive entertainment sectors.
Other analyst activity and investor reaction
AppLovins fourth-quarter results for 2025 also showed earnings per share of $3.24, beating the expected $2.96, and revenue of $1.66 billion versus an anticipated $1.61 billion. Nonetheless, first-quarter guidance disappointed some investors and contributed to downward pressure on the stock.
In other analyst moves, Needham reiterated a Buy rating with a $700 price target, citing the companys strong showing and forecasts for improving e-commerce revenue growth. BTIG lowered its price objective to $640 from $771 but maintained a Buy rating, noting that the Q1 guidance implied high single-digit growth.
Competitive environment and broader considerations
AppLovin continues to face competition for advertising dollars from large technology companies and newer advertising platforms. The companys robust demand for advertising services and AI-driven tools remains a positive operational factor, but competitive dynamics in the ad market represent an ongoing headwind highlighted by analysts and investors.
Note: This piece reports analyst actions, company results and metric updates as presented in public disclosures and analyst commentary.