Analyst Ratings February 11, 2026

Evercore Lifts Saia Price Target to $435 Citing Margin Recovery Potential

Analyst retains 'In Line' rating after mixed fourth-quarter results; Evercore nudges 2026 EPS higher as management flags possible operating-ratio improvement

By Maya Rios SAIA
Evercore Lifts Saia Price Target to $435 Citing Margin Recovery Potential
SAIA

Evercore ISI raised its price target on Saia to $435 from $367 while leaving its rating at "In Line" following mixed Q4 2025 results. Saia reported Q4 EPS below analyst and Street estimates even as revenue beat on slightly stronger volumes and yield; operating profit and operating ratio lagged expectations in part because of a rise in insurance expense. Management and Evercore see the potential for a 100-200 basis point year-over-year operating-ratio improvement depending on demand and seasonality, and Evercore adjusted its 2026 EPS estimate higher.

Key Points

  • Evercore raised Saia's price target to $435 from $367 and kept an "In Line" rating.
  • Saia's Q4 2025 EPS of $1.77 fell short of Evercore's $1.95 estimate and the Street's $1.90, even though revenue beat due to slightly stronger volumes and yield; EBIT and operating ratio missed partly because of higher insurance costs that may be one-time.
  • Management projects a possible 100-200 basis point year-over-year improvement in the operating ratio depending on demand follow-through; Evercore raised its 2026 EPS estimate to $10.52 from $10.35 and left 2027 at $13.59.
  • Rapid7 beat Q4 expectations on EPS and revenue but conservative 2026 guidance led to price-target cuts and a downgrade by several analysts, illustrating investor sensitivity to forward guidance.

Evercore ISI has increased its price target for Saia Inc. to $435.00 from $367.00, while maintaining an "In Line" rating on the transportation company.

Saia reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.77, below Evercore’s $1.95 projection and the consensus Street estimate of $1.90. Top-line performance stood out as revenue exceeded expectations, a result Evercore attributed to slightly stronger volumes and yield. Despite the revenue beat, Saia's EBIT and operating ratio failed to meet analyst projections, with Evercore noting that an increase in insurance costs was a contributing factor and that those costs could be one-time in nature.

January shipping activity was softer than Evercore had anticipated, a shortfall the firm links largely to widespread winter storms. Evercore argues that if activity returns to seasonal norms or better for the remainder of the quarter, Saia's operating ratio should track better than seasonality in the first quarter and could post a year-over-year improvement bolstered by a stronger March.

For the full year, Saia's management expressed cautious optimism about demand in light of recent ISM data. Management outlined a potential operating-ratio improvement in the range of 100 to 200 basis points year over year. The higher end of that range assumes demand continues to firm following the improved January ISM reading; the lower end assumes a flattish volume backdrop.

Reflecting these dynamics, Evercore raised its full-year 2026 earnings-per-share estimate for Saia to $10.52 from $10.35. The firm's 2027 EPS forecast remains largely unchanged at $13.59.


In separate corporate results noted alongside the Saia coverage, Rapid7 Inc. posted fourth-quarter 2025 EPS of $0.44, beating expectations of $0.41. Revenue also outpaced forecasts, coming in at $217.39 million versus the anticipated $215.03 million. Despite the quarterly beat, Rapid7's outlook for 2026 was described as conservative, prompting a cautious market response and follow-up actions by several financial institutions.

Following Rapid7's announcement, Scotiabank cut its price target from $18 to $9 while keeping a Sector Perform rating. JP Morgan trimmed its price target from $20 to $11. Canaccord Genuity downgraded its recommendation from Buy to Hold and reduced its price target to $10 from $27. These analyst moves reflect the market's reaction to the company's current results and its forward guidance.


The Evercore adjustment to Saia's price target, coupled with the firm's modest increase to 2026 EPS expectations, underscores a view that operating ratios may improve if demand holds and seasonality rebounds. Still, near-term variability in volumes, weather-related disruptions, and unusual expense items remain factors to monitor as the year progresses.

Risks

  • Weather-driven volume disruptions - January's softer performance was largely attributed to widespread winter storms, highlighting exposure of transportation volumes to weather and seasonal volatility.
  • One-time cost volatility - An increase in insurance expense dented Q4 results and, while Evercore suggested it may be a one-time item, such expense jumps can materially affect operating margins in the near term.
  • Demand uncertainty - The potential operating-ratio improvement depends on demand follow-through to recent ISM strength; a flattish volume backdrop would limit margin gains.

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