Summary
Evercore ISI reduced its price objective for Corebridge Financial (CRBG) to $37.00 from $38.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing concerns about continued spread compression as well as the potential impact of two Federal Reserve rate cuts expected in 2026. The stock is trading at $31.19 and appears undervalued versus its Fair Value, with analyst targets spanning $33 to $42.
Quarterly performance and adjusted results
Corebridge reported third-quarter 2025 operating earnings per share of $1.22, topping Evercore’s forecast of $1.10 and the consensus projection of $1.11. After removing notable items, core earnings were $1.19 per share; notable items included adverse alternative investments alongside favorable reinsurance and tax impacts. The company also disclosed fourth-quarter results showing adjusted earnings per share of $1.22, exceeding the $1.11 expectation, and reported $6.34 billion in revenue versus a $5.16 billion consensus.
Guidance and growth outlook
Management provided clearer guidance for 2026, projecting EPS of approximately $5.10. Evercore noted that this level sits at the lower bound of Corebridge’s customary 10-15% annual growth range. In response to the updated guidance, Evercore trimmed its 2026 EPS estimate from $5.24 to $5.10 and lowered its 2027 estimate from $6.04 to $5.76, representing downward revisions of 3% and 5%, respectively.
Headwinds cited by analysts
Evercore emphasized two primary headwinds: ongoing spread compression in Corebridge’s Individual Retirement segment and the earnings impact that could stem from two anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. These factors contributed to the modest reduction in the price target despite the Outperform rating.
Capital return and buybacks
Evercore flagged the company’s plan to front-load share repurchases in the first half of 2026, targeting roughly $700 million per quarter, compared with previous assumptions of $550 million per quarter. Corebridge also completed an additional $100 million of buybacks during the fourth quarter of 2025. Management’s aggressive buyback activity is notable alongside the company’s reported perfect Piotroski Score of 9, signaling strong financial metrics.
Balance-sheet and market metrics
Despite the lowered EPS outlook, Corebridge offers a 3.08% dividend yield and has a market capitalization of $16.23 billion. The company reported premiums and deposits of $10.1 billion for the quarter, a 7% increase versus the year-ago period, figures that accompanied the quarter’s revenue and earnings beats.
Valuation context
Market trading around $31.19 sits below the range of analyst price targets, which vary from $33 to $42. Data indicate Corebridge appears undervalued relative to its calculated Fair Value, a point that investors will weigh alongside reduced EPS projections and ongoing spread compression.
Key points
- Evercore ISI cut Corebridge’s price target to $37.00 from $38.00 but maintained an Outperform rating, citing spread compression and expected Fed easing in 2026.
- Corebridge reported operating EPS of $1.22 for Q3 2025 and adjusted EPS of $1.22 for Q4, both above analyst expectations; revenue for the fourth quarter was $6.34 billion.
- Management plans to accelerate buybacks into the first half of 2026, targeting about $700 million per quarter and completed an extra $100 million in Q4 2025; the company also yields 3.08% and has a market cap of $16.23 billion.
Risks and uncertainties
- Continued spread compression in the Individual Retirement segment could weigh on margins and earnings - this affects insurance and retirement asset management sectors.
- Two anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 may reduce net investment income and pressure yields, impacting financial-services profitability and valuation.
- Downward revisions to 2026 and 2027 EPS by Evercore reflect forecast uncertainty; further guidance or macro changes could prompt additional estimate adjustments.
Investors will need to balance the company’s recent earnings and revenue beats and capital-return plans against the headwinds outlined by Evercore. The mix of buyback activity, dividend yield, and the updated growth projections will be central to assessments of Corebridge’s near-term earnings trajectory and valuation.