Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating on The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) and maintained a $70.00 price target, referencing intra-quarter data points and channel checks within the consumer packaged goods category as the basis for its view.
In its note, Evercore ISI said it expects The Trade Desk to likely deliver a modest beat on fourth-quarter results. The research firm highlighted the company's stock performance year-to-date, saying the shares have fallen 33% so far this year. Supporting data from InvestingPro shows a 33.88% year-to-date decline and notes the stock is trading close to its 52-week low of $24.84, a level InvestingPro Tips classify as oversold.
Evercore ISI flagged two principal market pressures facing The Trade Desk: softness in the consumer packaged goods category and heightened competitive intensity from Amazon DSP. According to the firm, checks in the field suggest The Trade Desk has sharpened its commercial response - including a product and pricing approach centered on Audience Unlimited alongside other pricing levers - in order to better compete.
The research house provided estimates for the cadence of gross spend ex-political advertising, saying it decelerated by 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2024. That moderation follows estimated decelerations of 8 percentage points in each of the third and second quarters of 2024, per Evercore ISI's assessment.
On profitability and guidance, Evercore ISI indicated it views Street EBITDA forecasts - which the firm described as roughly in line with management guidance - as achievable. The firm calculated that management guidance implies a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase in expenses, a rate the note characterized as above seasonal trends observed in recent years.
Complementing the analyst work, InvestingPro data cited by the research firm suggests the stock is undervalued on a Fair Value basis and is trading at a PEG ratio of just 0.66.
Recent corporate updates and analyst adjustments
The Trade Desk issued a financial update indicating its fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA will be consistent with prior guidance. The company expects more than $840 million in revenue in the quarter, representing 13% year-over-year growth, and $375 million in adjusted EBITDA at a 45% margin.
Alongside that guidance, a series of analyst price-target revisions and executive changes were announced. Benchmark and KeyBanc each lowered their price targets to $40, citing revised revenue estimates and a more conservative outlook. Rosenblatt reduced its price target to $53 following the unexpected departure of CFO Alexander Kayyal, who had served in the position for five months. Truist Securities trimmed its price target to $60 but affirmed a Buy rating.
In response to the CFO exit, The Trade Desk appointed Tahnil Davis as interim CFO. Davis will report directly to CEO Jeff Green. Evercore ISI framed these moves as part of a period of transition and recalibration for the company, with implications for leadership and investor expectations.
Context and takeaway
Evercore ISI's reiteration of an Outperform rating and $70.00 price target rests on a combination of intra-quarter signals and client checks, a belief that Street EBITDA targets are attainable, and the company's actions on product and pricing to counter competitive pressures. Market-data from InvestingPro underscores the recent share-price weakness and a valuation profile that the data provider deems to be below estimated fair value.