Evercore ISI has elected to retain an In Line rating on Airbnb Inc. and hold its price target at $145 as the short-term focus turns to the company’s fourth-quarter earnings, which are scheduled for February 12. The firm’s view is grounded in industry data, targeted channel checks and sensitivity testing of its models.
Q4 expectations and near-term outlook
Evercore projects a "Modest Beat & Bracket Q4," drawing on multiple inputs including third-party channel checks - notably AirDNA - and its own model scenarios. The firm judges Wall Street’s current consensus for Q4 bookings of $19.36 billion (up 10% year-over-year) and revenue of $2.71 billion (up 9% year-over-year) to be achievable.
On operating metrics, Evercore expects about 117.7 million room nights in Q4, which would represent a 6% increase versus the year-ago quarter and a 12% decline sequentially, a shift the analysts say aligns with historical seasonality patterns for the business. An EBITDA margin of 28% is forecast for Q4, implying a 300 basis-point decline year-over-year; Evercore considers that margin outcome reasonable within its scenario work.
InvestingPro data cited by the firm shows Airbnb generated $2.76 billion in EBITDA over the most recent twelve-month period, and Evercore notes that management has continued an aggressive share buyback program.
Looking further ahead
For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Evercore regards Wall Street’s assumptions as sensible: bookings of $26.9 billion (up 8% year-over-year), revenue of $2.5 billion (up 11% year-over-year) and room nights of 154 million (up 6% year-over-year). The firm highlights Airbnb’s balance sheet strength - with more cash than debt - as a source of flexibility to support ongoing growth initiatives.
On a full-year basis for fiscal 2026, Evercore expects Airbnb to provide initial guidance for its EBITDA margin and believes that guidance will likely indicate stable margins relative to the roughly 35% margin the company is anticipated to report for fiscal 2025.
Valuation notes
Evercore points to a PEG ratio of 0.58 for Airbnb and characterizes the shares as trading at a low price-to-earnings multiple relative to near-term earnings growth. InvestingPro data referenced by the firm shows analyst price targets that range from $105 to $180, and a Fair Value assessment that suggests Airbnb appears slightly undervalued on a comprehensive basis.
Analyst actions and sentiment
A number of firms have recently adjusted their ratings and targets on Airbnb, reflecting generally more positive sentiment among sell-side analysts. Citizens moved its rating from Market Perform to Market Outperform, citing the launch of hotels on Airbnb’s platform as a potential catalyst for growth in urban markets. Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating and designated Airbnb a top pick for 2026, pointing to leadership changes including a new chief technology officer and heightened investor interest.
RBC Capital kept an Outperform rating while noting potential upside from Airbnb’s hotel strategy despite some market hesitation. B.Riley upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy and raised its price target, citing attractive valuation and prospects for healthy growth and margin expansion. Barclays moved its rating from Underweight to Equalweight, citing diminished risks and increasing its price target.
Collectively, these actions underscore a broadly optimistic stance among many analysts toward Airbnb’s growth trajectory, while Evercore’s In Line rating reflects a more measured near-term view heading into the Q4 results.
Summary
Evercore ISI has retained an In Line rating and a $145 price target on Airbnb ahead of the company’s February 12 Q4 earnings report. The firm expects a modest beat in Q4 driven by industry indicators and channel checks, finds Wall Street’s Q4 and Q1 2026 estimates achievable, and highlights a healthy balance sheet and ongoing buybacks. Several other brokerages have recently upgraded the stock, citing hotels on the platform, leadership changes and improved investor sentiment.
Key points
- Evercore maintains an In Line rating and $145 price target for Airbnb ahead of Q4 results due February 12.
- Firm expects Q4 bookings of $19.36 billion and revenue of $2.71 billion are achievable; Q4 room nights projected at 117.7 million and EBITDA margin at 28%.
- Multiple brokerages have recently upgraded Airbnb, pointing to potential growth from a hotels initiative, leadership changes and valuation-based upside.
Risks and uncertainties
- Seasonality: The projected 12% quarter-over-quarter decline in room nights for Q4 reflects historical seasonal patterns that can weigh on sequential performance - a factor affecting travel and hospitality demand.
- Margin pressure: An expected Q4 EBITDA margin of 28% would imply a 300 basis-point year-over-year contraction, signaling risk to near-term profitability in hospitality and platform economics.
- Market hesitation: While some analysts have upgraded the stock, references to market hesitation indicate uneven investor conviction around execution of strategic initiatives such as hotels.