Evercore ISI increased its 12-month target on Domino’s Pizza to $510 from $490, retaining an Outperform rating. The firm’s note arrives as the stock trades around $400.36, with a reported market capitalization of $13.53 billion. Analyst consensus, per the data cited, implies roughly 22% upside to the average target price.
Evercore highlighted Domino’s steady U.S. market-share expansion as a central rationale. The firm quantified the trend as roughly a one percentage-point annual gain in share, driven by category outperformance of more than three percentage points. Evercore said that dynamic is set to continue or potentially accelerate as the competitive landscape shifts, pointing specifically to competitor closures, more aggressive value marketing and ongoing menu additions as supportive factors.
The brokerage identified U.S. same-store-sales growth in the second half of 2026 and thereafter as the primary stock catalyst, modeling a 2% increase for that period. In addition to comparable-sales assumptions, Evercore sees scope for global net unit growth to step up to 4.5% year-over-year in 2026. The firm adjusted its 2026 and 2027 earnings-per-share estimates upward by 1% - a change noted as excluding the impact of a 53rd week in the fiscal calendar.
Under Evercore’s math, the new $510 target equates to 23 times the firm’s 2027 EPS estimate. The note contrasted that multiple with the company’s five-year price-to-earnings range of 20 to 31 times.
Recent operating results that underpin analyst attention
Domino’s reported a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, with revenue of $1.54 billion versus the consensus of $1.52 billion. EBITDA came in at $323 million compared with an expected $320 million. U.S. same-store sales rose 3.7%, outpacing the 3.47% estimate, with the company and analysts pointing to value-oriented promotions and new menu innovations as drivers of performance.
Market reactions in the broker community have been mixed but generally favorable on the results. BTIG kept a Buy rating and a $500 price target, while Benchmark reaffirmed a Buy and set a $540 target. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley lowered its rating to Equalweight from Overweight and cut its target to $455, citing concerns about the broader pizza segment and questions around Domino’s future growth trajectory even as the firm acknowledged a successful year and described Domino’s as a high-quality business.
In corporate developments, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises named Andrew Gregory, a longtime McDonald’s executive, as global chief executive officer effective by August 5.
Dividend and research notes
According to the summary data included, Domino’s has increased its dividend for 12 consecutive years and pays a current yield of 1.74%. For investors seeking added analysis, a comprehensive Pro Research Report is referenced as available, covering Domino’s alongside 1,400-plus other U.S. equities.
Key points
- Evercore raised its Domino’s price target to $510 from $490 and maintained an Outperform rating, reflecting confidence in sustained U.S. share gains and menu-driven sales momentum.
- Recent fiscal Q4 results beat consensus on revenue ($1.54 billion), EBITDA ($323 million) and U.S. same-store sales (up 3.7%), supporting analyst revisions and broker commentary.
- Projected catalysts include U.S. same-store-sales growth in H2 2026 (modeled at 2%) and potential acceleration of global net unit growth to 4.5% in 2026; these outcomes matter for restaurant and consumer-discretionary investors.
Risks and uncertainties
- The key catalyst - 2% U.S. same-store-sales growth in H2 2026 - may not materialize, which would affect the company’s outlook and investor returns; this risk is relevant to restaurant and foodservice equity valuations.
- Morgan Stanley’s downgrade reflects concerns about the broader pizza segment and Domino’s future growth trajectory, highlighting sector-level uncertainty.
- Forecasts of accelerated global net unit growth to 4.5% in 2026 and small EPS upgrades (1% for 2026 and 2027, excluding a 53rd week) rely on execution and market conditions that could diverge from the firm’s assumptions.