Evercore ISI has reduced its 12-month price target on Sprouts Farmers Market to $83.00 from $130.00 while retaining an Outperform rating as the specialty grocer approaches its fourth-quarter earnings report. The firm also added the company to its Underperform TAP List, assigning a near-term fair value of approximately $60 - a level that implies an 8-12% downside into Sprouts’ earnings announcement scheduled for February 19.
In explaining the change, Evercore pointed to a "choppy" consumer environment and a difficult set of first-half comparisons as the primary drivers for trimming its comparable-sales and earnings-per-share forecasts for calendar year 2026. The analyst noted that these headwinds informed the reduced outlook and the placement on the TAP List.
Market reaction to those challenges has already been reflected in the stock’s performance year-to-date. Evercore highlighted that Sprouts’ shares have fallen 17% so far this year compared with a 13% gain in the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), which the firm said underscores negative investor sentiment surrounding the company.
Despite the shorter-term caution, Evercore continues to express a longer-term constructive view of Sprouts. The firm emphasized the company’s exposure to healthy-eating trends, its merchandising strengths, favorable future comparisons, and a growth profile that includes more than 10% unit expansion. Evercore additionally noted that Sprouts currently trades at roughly a 10% discount to Kroger on a calendar year 2026 price-to-earnings basis.
Other broker commentary has also adjusted recently. Jefferies lowered its price target on Sprouts to $105 from $110 while maintaining a Buy rating. In its rationale, Jefferies pointed to mounting competitive pressures, specifically noting Amazon’s expansion of its Whole Foods business as a factor increasing competition. The firm also cited moderating food inflation as a constraint that could make it harder for Sprouts to accelerate comparable-sales growth.
Both broker updates reflect evolving market dynamics for the grocer and illustrate the mix of cyclical and competitive forces analysts are weighing. Sprouts’ near-term trajectory, according to these notes, hinges on how the company navigates consumer spending variability, the early-year comparison set, and intensifying competition within the grocery segment.
Analysts and investors will be watching Sprouts’ fourth-quarter results closely for confirmation of the trends the brokerages flagged and for any management commentary on how the company plans to address the pressures identified.