Deutsche Bank has downgraded Blue Owl Capital (NYSE: OWL), moving its recommendation from Buy to Hold and cutting the one-year price target to $10.00 from $15.00. The change comes as the stock trades around $10.44 - close to its 52-week low of $10.23 - after a 42.5% decline over the last six months.
The bank said it lowered forecasts across its alternative manager coverage because it expects a tougher near-term environment for net flows into retail credit products. Deutsche Bank noted that ongoing negative headlines in the sector are raising investor anxiety, which it anticipates will translate into a modest uptick in redemption requests for many retail credit vehicles as well as weaker new sales.
Deutsche Bank expects these strained conditions to persist for at least one to two quarters. The firm identified three developments that could help restore inflows: a slowdown in adverse headlines, no emergence of additional private credit defaults, and a broad improvement in investor risk appetite. Absent those factors, the bank foresees continued pressure on sales and retention for retail private credit offerings.
Within its research, Deutsche Bank reduced estimates for Blue Owl by a larger margin than for peers. The analyst team explained that Blue Owl has a greater share of fee-paying assets under management tied to retail private credit vehicles, which makes the firm more vulnerable to redemptions tied to negative publicity. As a result of the revisions, Deutsche Bank now models a slower pace of long-term fee-related earnings growth for Blue Owl.
The analyst house also adjusted price targets across other large alternative asset managers. It trimmed Blackstone and TPG targets by 9% and 10% respectively, while reductions for Carlyle, Apollo Global Management, and Brookfield Asset Management were more modest at roughly 2% to 3%.
Third-party analysis cited in the research notes indicates that Blue Owl may appear undervalued at current market levels. According to InvestingPro analysis, eight analysts have revised earnings estimates lower for the upcoming period. The InvestingPro platform is described as offering Pro Research Reports on Blue Owl and more than 1,400 U.S. equities to assist investors navigating volatile market conditions.
Blue Owl has seen several company-specific developments in recent weeks. The firm restricted withdrawals from its retail-focused private credit vehicle, Blue Owl Capital Corp II, moving away from a planned quarterly redemption schedule to a structure centered on periodic distributions of capital. This action represents a reversal of an earlier intent to resume redemptions this quarter.
Separately, Blue Owl joined Fundbox’s renewed credit facility with ATLAS SP Partners as a new lender, broadening its lending partnerships. These moves come amid divergent analyst views: while Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock, Bank of America has reiterated a Buy rating. Bank of America argued that misinformation about the private credit industry creates a buying opportunity and compared current uncertainty to prior periods that preceded outsized returns for firms such as Blackstone, Apollo, and Ares.
Taken together, Deutsche Bank’s downgrade highlights near-term liquidity and sentiment risks for firms with sizable retail private credit exposures, even as other market participants point to longer-term opportunity. Blue Owl’s participation in the Fundbox facility and ongoing support from Bank of America were cited as indications of continued confidence in the company’s strategic position.
Key points
- Deutsche Bank downgraded Blue Owl from Buy to Hold, cutting its price target to $10.00 from $15.00.
- The bank expects weaker net flows into retail credit products due to heightened investor anxiety and adverse headlines, forecasting pressure for one to two quarters.
- Blue Owl restricted redemptions in its retail-focused fund and joined a renewed credit facility as a lender; Bank of America continues to rate the stock Buy.
Risks and uncertainties
- Elevated investor anxiety and ongoing negative headlines could drive higher redemption requests and reduce new sales for retail credit products, affecting fee revenues for asset managers with retail exposure.
- The potential emergence of additional private credit defaults would likely worsen investor sentiment and could prolong or deepen outflows from retail vehicles.
- Near-term conditions are expected to persist for at least one to two quarters, creating uncertainty around the timing of any recovery in net flows and fee-related earnings growth.