Deutsche Bank on Thursday moved Truecaller AB from a Hold to a Buy recommendation, even as it lowered its one-year price target from SEK21 to SEK15. The upgrade came after the stock had already fallen sharply; Truecaller closed at SEK10.27 before the bank's rating change, a level that represents an 85% drop since Deutsche Bank began pulling back its enthusiasm for the company in May 2025.
The bank revised down its internal expectations ahead of Truecallers fiscal year 2025 results, trimming EBITDA forecasts for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 to figures that it says were 23% and 27% below consensus, respectively. Those cuts accompanied the reduced price target, signaling that Deutsche Bank has lowered near-term profit assumptions for the company.
Despite reducing both estimates and its target price, Deutsche Bank concluded that the current share price already incorporates the principal negative variables it sees for the business. The bank specifically highlighted worries tied to Truecallers largest programmatic advertising partner as well as the persistent appreciation of the Swedish krona as factors that have been reflected in the stock's decline.
Deutsche Bank also flagged a developing source of competition in India: rival providers offering lower-priced business services. The bank described those competing offerings as "rudimentary," and stopped short of assigning them immediate threat status. Instead, it indicated that Truecallers planned capital markets day in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 should provide further clarity and likely demonstrate Truecallers position relative to those entrants.
Context and implications
The sequence of moves by Deutsche Bank - lowering near-term forecasts and target price while upgrading the rating - reflects the banks judgment that additional downside from known risks is limited and that the stock's steep fall has already priced in those negatives. The decision balances a weaker financial outlook against what the bank views as an attractive valuation given the share-price decline.
Key points:
- Deutsche Bank upgraded Truecaller from Hold to Buy and cut its price target from SEK21 to SEK15.
- The stock was trading at SEK10.27 prior to the upgrade, an 85% decline since May 2025 when the bank's stance began to soften.
- Deutsche Banks EBITDA forecasts for fiscal 2026 and 2027 were 23% and 27% below consensus before Truecallers fiscal 2025 results.
Risks and uncertainties:
- Concerns about Truecallers largest programmatic advertising partner could continue to weigh on revenue, affecting the digital advertising sector.
- Continued appreciation of the Swedish krona remains a headwind to reported results and valuations tied to foreign-exchange movements.
- Emerging price-based competition for business services in India is a noted risk, although competitors were characterized as rudimentary by Deutsche Bank; this affects regional business-services dynamics.