Analyst Ratings February 17, 2026

D.A. Davidson Sticks with Buy on Tyler Technologies, Keeps $460 Target Despite Q4 Shortfalls

Analyst firm retains bullish stance while peers pull back price targets amid lower-than-expected quarterly results and a shift toward subscription revenue

By Leila Farooq TYL
D.A. Davidson Sticks with Buy on Tyler Technologies, Keeps $460 Target Despite Q4 Shortfalls
TYL

D.A. Davidson reaffirmed its Buy rating on Tyler Technologies with a $460.00 price target, a level that InvestingPro data indicates is about 51% above the current share price of $304.57 and aligns with InvestingPro’s Fair Value view that the stock is undervalued. The decision follows fourth-quarter results that missed revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts, modest downward revisions to 2026-2027 estimates, and management guidance for continued mid-single-digit revenue growth and double-digit non-GAAP EPS growth in 2026 that excludes a pending acquisition.

Key Points

  • D.A. Davidson maintained a Buy rating on Tyler Technologies with a $460 price target, implying about 51% upside from the current $304.57 share price per InvestingPro data.
  • Tyler’s fourth-quarter results missed revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts; full-year revenue was $2.33 billion, up 9.1%, with a 46.5% gross profit margin.
  • Management’s 2026 guidance calls for 7%-9% revenue growth and 10%-12% non-GAAP EPS growth; guidance does not include a pending acquisition, and peer analysts trimmed targets amid the company’s shift toward SaaS.

Analyst reiteration and valuation context

D.A. Davidson reiterated a Buy rating on shares of Tyler Technologies, assigning a $460.00 price target. According to InvestingPro data cited with the note, that target implies roughly a 51% upside from the stock's current trading level of $304.57 and aligns with InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment that the shares are undervalued.

Quarterly results and key metrics

Tyler reported fourth-quarter results in which both revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in below analyst forecasts. The firm said two items accounted for the majority of the variance versus expectations, without providing further detail in the note. For the full year, Tyler recorded revenue of $2.33 billion, representing 9.1% year-over-year growth, and the company sustained a 46.5% gross profit margin.

Guidance and analyst adjustments

Management laid out guidance for 2026 that calls for total revenue growth in the range of 7% to 9% year-over-year and non-GAAP earnings per share growth of 10% to 12% year-over-year. The guidance explicitly did not incorporate a pending acquisition. Following the quarterly release, D.A. Davidson modestly trimmed its 2026 and 2027 total revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections but retained its Buy rating and the $460 price target.

Market reaction and peer moves

Tyler’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and revenue both slightly undershot consensus estimates. The company posted earnings per share of $2.64, compared with an expected $2.72, and reported revenue of $575.2 million versus a forecast of $591.03 million. In response to the results, Needham lowered its price target on Tyler to $400 while maintaining a Buy rating and noting that SaaS bookings increased 9.6% year-over-year.

Stifel also reduced its target to $400 from $550, pointing to the company's ongoing transition toward a subscription-based revenue model. Stifel analyst Parker Lane emphasized the increasing role of software-as-a-service in Tyler’s revenue composition as part of the firm’s rationale for the adjustment.

Takeaway

The cross-section of analyst notes reflects a mixture of continued confidence in long-term value, as signaled by D.A. Davidson’s unchanged Buy and high price target, alongside caution from other brokers reacting to the quarter’s disappointments and the company’s strategic shift toward SaaS. Management’s 2026 guidance and the exclusion of a pending acquisition from that outlook add further variables for investors and analysts to monitor as forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are updated.


Additional context and limitations

Where details were limited in analysts’ public comments, this article reflects only the figures and statements provided in the respective analyst notes and the company’s reported results. No additional assumptions or projections have been introduced beyond what was stated by Tyler or the covering firms.

Risks

  • Near-term financial performance risk from revenue and adjusted EBITDA misses, which may pressure investor sentiment in the software and technology sectors.
  • Uncertainty related to the pending acquisition, since management’s 2026 guidance excludes it, leaving potential impacts on revenue and earnings unquantified.
  • Transition risk as Tyler shifts toward a subscription-based (SaaS) model, which affects revenue composition and was cited by analysts as a factor prompting lower price targets.

More from Analyst Ratings

DA Davidson Cuts Uber Price Target Citing Elevated Investment; Buy Rating Intact Feb 20, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Raises Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, Cites Copper Supply Tightness Feb 20, 2026 BofA Lifts CF Industries Price Target After Strong Q4 EBITDA; Maintains Underperform Rating Feb 20, 2026 Truist Lifts Tandem Diabetes Price Target as Company Shifts Toward Pharmacy Model Feb 20, 2026 BWS Financial Boosts A10 Networks Price Target Citing AI-Driven Network Traffic Feb 20, 2026