Analyst Ratings February 20, 2026

DA Davidson Sticks With Buy on Shift4, $104 Target; Sees Limited Forecast Changes Ahead of Q4 Results

Analyst holds positive view while peers trim ratings and targets; company unveils stablecoin settlement and declares preferred stock dividend

By Ajmal Hussain FOUR
DA Davidson Sticks With Buy on Shift4, $104 Target; Sees Limited Forecast Changes Ahead of Q4 Results
FOUR

DA Davidson reiterated a Buy rating on Shift4 Payments (FOUR) with a $104 price target, citing expectations that the company will meet or modestly exceed fourth-quarter forecasts. The stock has declined 35% over the past six months and currently trades at $58.98 versus an InvestingPro Fair Value of $87.77. The firm adjusted its model for near-term volume, share repurchases, FX shifts, and corporate simplification, but said changes to annual revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and non-GAAP EPS forecasts are not material. Shift4 is set to report Q4 results early on Thursday, February 26, and has introduced a stablecoin settlement platform while its board declared a $1.50 per share dividend on a convertible preferred series.

Key Points

  • DA Davidson reaffirmed a Buy rating on Shift4 Payments with a $104 target while the stock trades at $58.98 versus an InvestingPro Fair Value of $87.77 - sectors impacted: payments and fintech.
  • The firm expects Q4 results early on Thursday, February 26 and anticipates Shift4 will meet or modestly exceed forecasts; management is expected to provide initial 2026 guidance excluding the potential Worldline North America acquisition - sectors impacted: capital markets and corporate strategy.
  • Shift4 launched a stablecoin settlement platform supporting USDC, USDT, EURC, and DAI across Ethereum and Solana, and its board declared a $1.50 dividend on 6% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock payable February 2, 2026 - sectors impacted: blockchain and merchant payments.

DA Davidson has reaffirmed its Buy recommendation for Shift4 Payments (NYSE: FOUR) and maintained a $104 target price, even as the payments processor's shares have fallen roughly 35% over the last six months. InvestingPro analysis cited in the firm's note places the stock at $58.98, compared with a Fair Value estimate of $87.77.

The analyst house said it expects Shift4 to release fourth-quarter results early on Thursday, February 26, and is modeling an outcome in which the company meets or modestly exceeds its internal forecasts. InvestingPro Tips referenced in the briefing indicate that net income is expected to grow this year and that Shift4 has remained profitable over the trailing twelve months. The platform notes that investors can access five additional ProTips and further analysis through its Pro Research Report.

DA Davidson also said management is likely to provide initial guidance for 2026 alongside the quarterly report. That guidance is expected to exclude any impact from a potential acquisition of Worldline's North American subsidiaries.

On the modeling side, DA Davidson made a series of adjustments to reflect its current view of the business environment. The firm lowered near-term payment volume growth expectations modestly, assumed somewhat higher levels of share repurchases, incorporated recent foreign exchange rate moves, and added assumptions tied to the company's recent simplification of its corporate structure. Despite those inputs, the firm characterized the net change to its annual forecasts for net revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and non-GAAP earnings per share as not material.

Separately, Shift4 has rolled out a stablecoin settlement platform that gives merchants the option to receive settlement in digital currencies instead of traditional bank transfers. The service supports stablecoins including USDC, USDT, EURC, and DAI, and will operate across multiple blockchain networks such as Ethereum and Solana.

The company's board of directors has also declared a cash dividend of $1.50 per share on its 6% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, with the dividend payable on February 2, 2026.

Market reactions have been mixed. Deutsche Bank moved to downgrade Shift4 from Buy to Hold, citing concerns about the sustainability of the company's organic growth, even after a reported 18% year-over-year increase in the third quarter of 2025. Mizuho trimmed its price target for Shift4 to $90.00 from $102.00, attributing the change to revised fourth-quarter volume expectations.

In a distinct personnel-related development, Shift4's founder Jared Isaacman has been reported to offer private jet rides to top NASA staff as incentives for exceptional performance. Collectively, these items sketch a company navigating product innovation, capital allocation decisions, and differing analyst views as it approaches its next quarterly update.


About the coverage

This report consolidates analyst commentary, company announcements, and third-party valuation metrics provided in the public note. It does not add forecasts or figures beyond those cited by the firm and referenced sources.

Risks

  • Near-term payment volume growth may be slightly weaker than previously modeled, which could affect revenue and margins - impacted sectors: payments and merchant services.
  • Analyst downgrade risk as reflected by Deutsche Bank's move from Buy to Hold due to questions about the sustainability of organic growth; differing analyst views may increase volatility - impacted sectors: equity markets and fintech coverage.
  • Revised fourth-quarter volume expectations, as cited by Mizuho, introduce uncertainty into near-term performance and guidance - impacted sectors: payments processing and investor sentiment.

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