Analyst Ratings February 11, 2026

DA Davidson Stands Pat on Shopify Buy Rating as Growth Momentum Persists

Firm keeps $195 price target after strong 2025 finish, citing category leadership despite market volatility and mixed guidance

By Jordan Park SHOP
DA Davidson Stands Pat on Shopify Buy Rating as Growth Momentum Persists
SHOP

DA Davidson has reaffirmed its Buy rating on Shopify with an unchanged $195.00 price target following the company’s robust finish to 2025. The firm highlights continued top-line momentum and expanding global reach, even as shares swung from an early gain to a midday decline amid concerns about near-term free cash flow and broader SaaS-sector pressures.

Key Points

  • DA Davidson reiterates Buy rating and $195.00 price target on Shopify, implying significant upside from the $115.40 trading level - sectors affected include e-commerce and software.
  • Shopify grew revenue 31% in 2025 and management projects over 30% growth for Q1 2026, ahead of the 26% consensus - this underscores continued momentum in online retail platforms and related tech services.
  • Q4 2025 results beat expectations with EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $3.67 billion; analyst responses vary with Truist cutting its target and Canaccord lowering but retaining a Buy rating - impacts span equity markets and software valuation debates.

DA Davidson has reiterated a Buy rating on Shopify Inc. and maintained a $195.00 price target after the e-commerce platform closed out 2025 with strong growth, according to the firm. The price target implies substantial upside from Shopify’s then-current share price of $115.40 and coexists with a steep price-to-earnings ratio of 85.

Shopify reported 31% year-over-year revenue growth for 2025, a performance that DA Davidson says has positive carry into 2026. Management guided to greater than 30% growth for the first quarter of 2026, a forecast that sits well above consensus expectations of 26%. The company’s five-year revenue compound annual growth rate remains notable at 41%.

The stock’s intraday action illustrated market ambivalence. Shares opened roughly 8% higher but reversed course to fall about 12% by midday. DA Davidson linked that pullback to two factors: what the firm described as the ongoing "SaaS-Pocalypse" in the software sector and Shopify’s lower-than-expected free cash flow guidance for the first quarter of 2026. Shopify’s beta of 2.82 was noted as an indicator of the stock’s elevated volatility relative to the broader market.

Despite the intra-session weakness, DA Davidson continues to characterize Shopify as a category leader in e-commerce with expanding international reach. The firm pointed to the company’s continued adoption of agentic commerce capabilities as a strengthening factor for its long-term positioning. DA Davidson regards the recent share decline as a buying opportunity and retained the $195.00 target, which it said equates to roughly 90 times the company’s projected free cash flow for 2026.

Shopify’s most recent quarterly results underpinned the upbeat stance. In the fourth quarter of 2025 the company reported earnings per share of $0.57, beating the consensus forecast of $0.51. Revenue for the quarter reached $3.67 billion, topping the anticipated $3.59 billion.

Analysts outside DA Davidson have taken varying approaches to valuation and outlook. Truist Securities lowered its price target to $110 from $155 and kept a Hold rating, citing concerns about valuation. Canaccord Genuity trimmed its target to $165 from $185 but maintained a Buy rating, noting momentum in Shopify’s business alongside potential AI-driven disruptions in the software sector. These divergent analyst moves offer differing perspectives on the company’s near-term valuation and longer-term trajectory.

Risks

  • Near-term free cash flow guidance came in below expectations, creating uncertainty for cash-flow-sensitive investors and affecting tech and growth-oriented equity sentiment.
  • Ongoing sector pressure described as the "SaaS-Pocalypse" could continue to weigh on software and subscription-based business valuations, increasing volatility for related stocks.
  • High share-price volatility indicated by a beta of 2.82 raises execution and market-timing risk for investors in Shopify and other high-beta tech names.

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