DA Davidson has reduced its price target for Louisiana-Pacific Corp (NYSE:LPX) to $114 from $117 while maintaining a Buy recommendation on the stock. The move follows the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results and centers on an unexpected siding destock in the first quarter of 2026, which analyst Kurt Yinger identified as the primary short-term concern affecting the shares.
The brokerage firm sees the current destocking as a transitory issue. In its assessment, DA Davidson still projects above-market growth and robust margins for the remainder of the year, and the analyst highlighted company commentary that points to a higher probability of forthcoming builder wins. The firm specifically cited momentum in the ExpertFinish product line and the prospect of builder wins as meaningful growth drivers for the siding business.
Market action has reflected investor unease over the near-term developments. Shares of Louisiana-Pacific have dropped by 13% over the last week, a decline DA Davidson and market participants attribute to the anticipated headwinds from the siding inventory adjustment.
From a valuation standpoint, DA Davidson estimated the siding segment is trading at 9.8 times its 2026 estimated segment EBITDA and 8.4 times its 2027 estimated segment EBITDA. The firm described these multiples as discounted at current stock levels. On a broader basis, the company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.3.
Independent InvestingPro analysis included in the market commentary indicates that, based on its fair-value framework, Louisiana-Pacific currently appears overvalued relative to that Fair Value. An InvestingPro alert noted that five analysts have revised their earnings estimates downward for the forthcoming period - this is one of twelve InvestingPro tips available to subscribers referenced in the market summary.
Louisiana-Pacific’s reported fourth-quarter 2025 results factored heavily into the discussion. The company delivered earnings per share of $0.03, comfortably above the consensus forecast of -$0.0028, representing a 1,171.43% surprise relative to the estimate. Despite the EPS outperformance, revenue for the quarter came in at $567 million, missing the anticipated $594.64 million and representing a 4.65% shortfall versus expectations.
That divergence between stronger-than-expected EPS and softer-than-expected revenue has drawn attention from analysts and investors. Pre-market trading reflected this mixed set of results with an initial decline in the stock, underscoring how both earnings and top-line metrics are driving investor assessment of operational health.
DA Davidson’s view balances the current short-term pressure from the siding destock against an outlook that anticipates recovery through product momentum and builder relationships. The firm’s maintained Buy rating signals conviction that the temporary inventory adjustment will not derail expected above-market growth and margin improvement over the balance of the year.
Context for market participants
- Investors tracking building-products exposure and construction-related supply dynamics should monitor the pace of siding restocking and builder wins referenced by company commentary.
- Valuation comparisons at the segment level - specifically the 2026 and 2027 segment EBITDA multiples cited by DA Davidson - are central to the firm’s argument that the siding business is trading at a discount.