Overview
DA Davidson has increased its price target for Knife River Corp. (NYSE: KNF) to $105 from $95 while retaining a Buy recommendation. The firm said it adjusted its forecasts in response to Knife River’s fourth-quarter results and the company’s initial guidance for 2026. Knife River shares have reacted strongly in the market, rising 16.57% in the past week and 33.57% year-to-date, with the stock trading at $92.50 at the time of the latest update.
Valuation and analyst math
DA Davidson indicated the new $105 target implies multiples of roughly 13 times and 12 times the firm’s EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027, respectively. By comparison, Knife River is trading at an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 13.49 using last twelve months EBITDA of $479.5 million, a metric the firm cited in its analysis.
Quarterly performance
Knife River reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded consensus expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $0.56, above the $0.41 forecast, representing a 36.59% earnings surprise. Revenue came in at $755.1 million versus an anticipated $651 million, a 15.99% revenue surprise. Those top-line and bottom-line beats contributed to upward pressure on analyst valuations.
Segment and regional notes
According to DA Davidson, Knife River’s acquisitions alongside its core operating businesses delivered positive results in the quarter. Company management highlighted improved contributions from operations in Oregon, though the firm noted that the backlog in that state remains lower and that market conditions there appear mixed. DA Davidson also signaled an expectation of pressure in the West segment through 2026 but said visibility and activity in other operating regions should support the company’s overall 2026 performance.
Margins, M&A and long-term targets
DA Davidson pointed to the potential for further clarity around Knife River’s long-term objective of a 20% EBITDA margin as accretive mergers and acquisitions progress and as the narrative in Oregon potentially shifts through 2026. The firm sees those developments as important to assessing the company’s sustained margin profile.
Other analyst action
Separately, Stephens raised its price target on Knife River to $105 from $86 and maintained an Overweight rating. Stephens cited the fourth-quarter results, which it said exceeded expectations across all product lines. Strong volumes and favorable pricing in aggregates and ready-mix concrete were credited with lifting Knife River’s adjusted EBITDA margin to 15.8%. That margin exceeded Stephens’ prior estimate of 14.4% and the Street estimate of 14.7%.
Market reaction and context
The combination of Q4 outperformance and revised analyst targets has coincided with a notable move in Knife River’s share price. While DA Davidson and Stephens have both increased their targets to $105, the stock at the quoted $92.50 level remained below those targets even after a significant rally earlier in the year. Analysts tying targets to multi-year EBITDA projections will be watching regional activity, backlog trends in Oregon, and any accretive M&A execution for signs of sustainable margin improvement.
Bottom line
Knife River’s latest quarterly results prompted upward revisions from multiple analysts and reinforced the case for the company’s near-term earnings strength. Key uncertainties remain around regional backlog and West-segment pressure in 2026, factors that analysts have flagged as influential for the company’s ability to reach longer-term margin goals.