DA Davidson reduced its one-year price target for Harley-Davidson to $25.00 from $30.00 and left its Buy recommendation intact, reflecting a more conservative near-term view even as the firm cited management’s push to address structural issues.
The stock is trading at $20.37, close to its 52-week low of $19.32, and carries a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.32. The adjustment in valuation follows the motorcycle maker’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial report and the initial outlook for 2026, which DA Davidson characterized as "well below expectations" while noting what it called "a clear commitment to a turnaround year."
Harley-Davidson reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -2.44 for the fourth quarter of 2025, materially worse than the projected -1.06 and representing an earnings surprise of -130.19%. Revenue for the quarter was $496 million, modestly above the forecast of $486.61 million.
Over the trailing twelve months, the company’s revenue contracted by 13.76%. Market analysts included in the coverage expect an additional sales decline of roughly 17% in fiscal 2026. These figures underpinned DA Davidson’s decision to trim the firm’s price objective.
DA Davidson highlighted management actions aimed at reducing inventory as a central element of the company’s plan to stabilize operations. The firm noted CEO Artie Starrs’ engagement in pursuing a business turnaround. Management has also been aggressive on share repurchases, and the company carries a Piotroski Score of 8, a metric that the research note interpreted as evidence of financial strength.
The new $25.00 target is derived from a 16.7x multiple applied to DA Davidson’s fiscal year 2027 EPS estimate of $1.50 for Harley-Davidson. While DA Davidson acknowledged the near-term outlook remains uncertain, the firm expressed the view that resolving current challenges could better position the company for longer-term performance.
Other sell-side activity has reflected similar reassessments. BMO Capital lowered its price target for Harley-Davidson from $30.00 to $24.00, maintaining an Outperform rating. The BMO analyst, Tristan M. Thomas-Martin, described the company’s initial 2026 guidance as "well below expectations." BMO attributed the guidance shortfall to several reset actions Harley-Davidson is implementing as part of its operational adjustments.
Investors are now closely watching how the company executes on inventory reductions, the impact of reset actions reflected in 2026 guidance, and whether the combination of share buybacks and operational changes can translate into a more favorable financial trajectory in subsequent years.
Clear takeaways:
- DA Davidson trims price target to $25.00 while keeping a Buy rating.
- Q4 2025 EPS missed materially at -2.44 versus -1.06 expected, while revenue modestly beat at $496 million.
- Revenue has fallen 13.76% year-over-year, with analysts forecasting a further 17% sales decline in fiscal 2026.