DA Davidson lowered its price target for Criteo S.A. to $28.50 from $38.00, while retaining a Buy rating on the ad technology company. The revised target still implies meaningful upside relative to the stock's recent trading level of $19.01, a price that is nearly 58% below its 52-week high of $47.25.
The change in the target followed Criteo's fourth-quarter 2025 results, which DA Davidson characterized as "solid" and "slightly ahead of consensus" on consolidated contribution ex-TAC (CexT) and adjusted EBITDA measures. Those metrics underpin the firm's assessment even as it reduced its valuation outlook.
For 2026, Criteo guided to total contribution ex-TAC growth of 0% to 2% on an FX-neutral basis. That range aligns closely with consensus expectations of roughly +1.4% and sits near DA Davidson's internal projection of +2.0%. The company also provided an EBITDA margin target range of 32% to 34% for 2026, which brackets the Street consensus of 33.2% and DA Davidson's forecast of 32.8%.
Despite trimming the price target, DA Davidson's continued Buy rating indicates the firm retains confidence in Criteo's underlying fundamentals even as it applies more conservative valuation assumptions.
Analysts pointed to several valuation and cash-flow metrics that make the stock appear inexpensive at current levels: a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.38, an enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of 2.09, and a free cash flow yield of 22%. In addition, a company fair-value model referenced by analysts suggests the shares are materially undervalued versus prevailing market prices.
Details from Criteo's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release show diluted earnings per share of $1.30, missing the expected $1.38 and representing a 5.8% negative surprise to estimates. At the same time, revenue reached $541 million, a figure that substantially exceeded the forecast of $328.96 million and represented a positive surprise of 64.46%.
Even with the revenue beat, the stock moved lower in premarket trading, underscoring the mixed nature of the results: stronger-than-expected top-line performance paired with an EPS shortfall and a more muted growth outlook for the coming year.
Context and implications
The analyst action reflects a nuanced view: operational performance and cash generation remain points of strength, but management's guidance for contribution growth and margins kept expectations tempered. The updated valuation captures that balance—retaining a constructive rating while lowering the price objective.