Compass Point adjusted its valuation of Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (NYSE: OTF) on Monday, lowering the 12-month price target to $14.50 from $17.00 but maintaining a Buy rating on the business development company. The new target reflects a reduced target price-to-net asset value multiple of 0.85x, down from the prior 1.0x, with the firm tying its target to a 12-month forward net asset value estimate of $17.12.
The stock is trading around $11.62, close to its 52-week low of $11.60. That pricing sits against broader pressure across the business development company sector.
Casey Alexander, the analyst at Compass Point, pointed to concentrated exposures within the sector as a primary reason for the multiple compression. Alexander said business development companies have sizable allocations to software loans. Those loans, the analyst noted, are considered more vulnerable because of the potential for artificial intelligence capabilities to change competitive and operational dynamics for software companies.
Alexander emphasized that debt instruments carry a different risk profile than equity positions, describing debt as having near-term maturity dates and visible end points. That distinction, he said, matters for valuation and risk assessment in the current environment.
Despite the sector-level concerns, the analyst characterized OTF’s portfolio as being in very good shape today, calling the company’s current condition solid. Compass Point highlighted that OTF holds a high-quality portfolio of software companies and benefits from strong institutional sponsorship.
From a returns perspective, Compass Point calculated that the $14.50 price target, when combined with the company’s dividend, presents a potential total return of more than 45%. The company’s dividend yield is reported at nearly 14%. Even with that yield, the stock has fallen by more than 20% year-to-date.
Additional research notes available to InvestingPro subscribers include eight exclusive tips on OTF, covering detailed analysis of its financial health and valuation metrics.
In a separate recent disclosure, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that missed analyst expectations. The company reported earnings per share of $0.30 versus the projected $0.35, representing a 14.29% negative surprise. Revenue for the quarter was reported at $320.58 million. Those figures provide a snapshot of the company’s recent financial performance and may be of interest to investors monitoring near-term results.
There are currently no updates regarding mergers or acquisitions involving Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. Likewise, there have been no recent analyst upgrades or downgrades reported for the company. Market participants will likely be watching for any further statements from analysts or corporate developments that could affect valuation and sentiment.
These items together - the trimmed price target and multiple, the company’s substantial dividend yield, the year-to-date share price decline, and the quarterly earnings miss - outline the near-term picture for OTF without providing any new forward-looking claims beyond Compass Point’s stated estimates and the company’s reported results.