Compass Point has increased its 12-month price objective for The Macerich Company (NYSE: MAC) to $22, up from $20, while retaining a Buy recommendation on the retail-focused real estate investment trust. The broker highlighted management's May guidance as the principal rationale for the adjustment.
In that guidance, Macerich projected net operating income (NOI) in the range of $860 million to $900 million for a portfolio that has been reshaped toward higher-producing properties. That estimate is built on several assumptions explicitly outlined by the company, including the sale of additional assets, NOI expansion driven by stronger leasing metrics, and value added through redevelopment projects.
The shares are trading at $20.30, close to a 52-week high of $20.65, after posting a 9.6% increase over the past week. Compass Point noted that current leasing volume is running ahead of earlier expectations and has contributed to higher same-store NOI to date.
Macerich has also signaled a goal of shrinking leverage over time. Management is targeting a debt ratio in the range of 6.25 to 6.55 times, down from the 7.8 times reported for the fourth quarter of 2025. That targeted reduction in leverage is part of the company’s broader plan to strengthen the balance sheet as the portfolio is repositioned.
Management expects the property base to become smaller as non-core assets are sold, but projects that the go-forward portfolio will generate NOI growth averaging 5% per year over the next four years. Compass Point flagged that the catalysts underpinning this outlook will unfold primarily over the next two years, and cautioned that market-moving upside may not materialize until mid-2027. The firm said that outcome could leave shares largely flat for much of 2026 before improving in the second half of that year.
The company has paid a dividend for 33 consecutive years and presently yields 3.35%. Current leasing activity and the planned redevelopment pipeline are central to management’s forecast for NOI and rental income growth going forward.
Separately, KeyBanc upgraded Macerich’s rating to Overweight from Sector Weight and assigned a $25.00 price target. That upgrade was tied to what KeyBanc described as progress on the company’s multi-year Path Forward Plan. The plan includes a $107 million small-shop new opening pipeline, with annual base rent from those openings expected to commence through 2028. KeyBanc indicated that the Path Forward Plan is executing ahead of expectations, which underpins its more bullish stance.
Together, the analyst actions underscore differing degrees of confidence in Macerich’s execution of asset sales, leasing momentum and redevelopment activity. Investors and market participants will be watching whether the company can deliver the anticipated NOI gains and reach its targeted leverage levels within the stated timeframes.