Analyst Ratings February 18, 2026

Compass Point Lifts Affirm Price Target After Robust Q2; Analysts Adjust Views

Broker boosts target to $68 as Affirm shows revenue growth, margin runway and resilience after merchant loss

By Jordan Park AFRM
Compass Point Lifts Affirm Price Target After Robust Q2; Analysts Adjust Views
AFRM

Compass Point increased its price target on Affirm Holdings Inc. to $68 from $64 and kept a Buy rating after the company reported fiscal second-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The revision reflects updated estimates and a valuation anchored at 20 times Compass Point's fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $3.38. Multiple analysts also updated their ratings and targets in the wake of the quarter, while Affirm announced a partnership with Lowe's and scheduled an investor forum for May 2026.

Key Points

  • Compass Point raised its price target on Affirm to $68 from $64 and maintained a Buy rating, reflecting updated fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS assumptions.
  • Affirm reported fiscal Q2 revenues of $1.12 billion (up 30% year-over-year) and has recorded 32.7% revenue growth over the past twelve months while achieving profitability.
  • Analyst actions varied post-quarter: Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy, Stephens lowered its target to $65 (Equal Weight), UBS set a $78 target, and Needham cut its target to $85 but kept a Buy rating; Affirm also announced a partnership with Lowe's.

Compass Point raised its target price on Affirm Holdings Inc. to $68 from $64 and maintained a Buy endorsement after updating its financial model in response to Affirm's fiscal second-quarter 2026 results. The firm said the new target implies roughly a 32% upside from the stock's trading level of $51.60 and equates to 20 times Compass Point's fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings per share estimate of $3.38, which adds back stock-based compensation and enterprise warrant expense.

Compass Point highlighted several operational positives underpinning the change, citing Affirm's ability to outpace expectations, expand market share, and win new merchant relationships while preserving steady credit metrics. The bank pointed to Affirm's management of the loss of a sizable merchant relationship with minimal disruption as evidence of the buy-now-pay-later platform's resilience and brand loyalty.

Affirm's top-line momentum is a central element in Compass Point's view: the company reported a 32.7% increase in revenue over the last twelve months and achieved profitability within that span. Those trends, combined with a gross profit margin that InvestingPro reports at 47.78%, suggest to Compass Point there is scope for operating margin expansion as the business scales.

On the margin trajectory, Compass Point projects an improvement in adjusted operating income margin of approximately 110 basis points between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2028, targeting a 30.0% adjusted operating margin by fiscal 2028. The firm noted Affirm could exceed that forecast and should benefit from significant operating leverage as fixed costs are spread over a larger base of revenue.

From a valuation standpoint, Compass Point contrasted its target with Affirm's prevailing multiples. While the company currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio near 64.75, Compass Point cited a PEG ratio of 0.27 as an indicator that the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth profile, per the firm's metrics.

Looking ahead, Affirm has scheduled an investor forum for May 2026 where management is expected to present a new medium-term outlook. Compass Point flagged the event as a potential positive catalyst that could provide the market with an updated valuation anchor.


Other broker activity and company developments followed the quarter. Affirm reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $1.12 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year, topping an analyst estimate of $1.05 billion from Stephens. In response to the results, Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on the shares.

Several firms adjusted targets and ratings: Stephens lowered its price target to $65 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating and cited peer multiple compression as a factor; UBS moved its target to $78 on the strength of Affirm's momentum across several financial measures; Needham reduced its target to $85, attributing the change to warrant headwinds but kept a Buy rating and described the outlook for the second half of the year as solid.

On the corporate development front, Affirm announced a partnership with Lowe's to provide customers the option to split purchases into biweekly or monthly payments. The tie-up expands Affirm's payment offerings within a major retail partner, aligning with the company's broader push to deepen merchant relationships.

Affirm's market capitalization stands at $17.19 billion. Compass Point and other analysts noted that continued growth, margin expansion and the forthcoming investor forum are key inputs for future valuation assessments. Investors can pursue more detailed research through affiliated Pro Research resources.


Overall, Compass Point's price-target increase and the cluster of analyst updates reflect a market recalibration around Affirm's recent operating results and forward guidance expectations. The combination of accelerating revenue, improving profitability and strategic partnerships has prompted differing adjustments across broker targets, while the investor forum in May 2026 is expected to supply additional clarity on medium-term metrics.

Risks

  • Loss of significant merchant relationships remains a business risk; while management minimized impact in the recent instance, merchant concentration can affect revenue and partnerships - impacting the payments and retail sectors.
  • Peer multiple compression in the sector can pressure price targets and valuations, as noted by Stephens - affecting investor sentiment across fintech and consumer finance stocks.
  • Warrant-related headwinds cited by Needham may weigh on valuation metrics and near-term price targets, presenting uncertainty for investors in financial technology equities.

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