Analyst Ratings February 23, 2026

Citizens Upholds Outperform Call on Savara Ahead of MOLBREEVI FDA Decision

Analyst cites Priority Review as evidence of unmet need in aPAP and assigns 90% approval probability; company advances financing and manufacturing arrangements

By Derek Hwang SVRA
Citizens Upholds Outperform Call on Savara Ahead of MOLBREEVI FDA Decision
SVRA

Citizens has reaffirmed a Market Outperform rating and a $10.00 price target on Savara Inc. (NASDAQ:SVRA), citing the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Priority Review of the company's Biologics License Application for MOLBREEVI as a strong signal of the regulator's recognition of unmet need in autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (aPAP). The firm assigns a 90% probability of approval and highlights survey data and potential uptake that support blockbuster expectations, while Savara secures contingent financing and resubmits its BLA with a new drug substance manufacturer.

Key Points

  • Citizens reaffirmed a Market Outperform rating and a $10.00 price target on Savara (NASDAQ:SVRA); current share price is $5.53 and analyst targets range from $9 to $16 - this impacts the healthcare and biotech sectors.
  • Citizens assigns a 90% probability of FDA approval for MOLBREEVI and cites Priority Review as recognition of the high unmet need in aPAP; pulmonologist survey data suggest an expected 60% utilization rate, supporting blockbuster potential.
  • Corporate and regulatory moves include FDA acceptance of the BLA with a Priority Review target action date of August 22, 2026, a loan amendment with Hercules Capital providing access to up to $105 million contingent on approval, and a BLA resubmission naming FUJIFILM Biotechnologies as drug substance manufacturer.

Citizens has reiterated a Market Outperform rating on Savara Inc. shares and kept a $10.00 price target as the company progresses its regulatory and financing programs tied to MOLBREEVI, the proposed therapy for autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (aPAP). The stock last traded at $5.53, while analyst targets elsewhere span from $9 to $16.

In its note, Citizens framed the FDA's decision to grant Priority Review for Savara's Biologics License Application as a meaningful acknowledgement of the high unmet medical need in aPAP and of MOLBREEVI's potential advantages over existing therapies. The firm assigns a 90% probability that the therapy will gain approval.

Citizens also described MOLBREEVI as having blockbuster potential, pointing to a pulmonologist survey that showed expectations of robust adoption - with an anticipated 60% utilization among the relevant patient population. That optimism has been reflected in the share price, which has returned 106% over the past year.

Investors evaluating valuation should note that an available analysis indicates the stock currently appears overvalued relative to its Fair Value, though a comprehensive Pro Research Report is cited as a resource for deeper examination of the company's prospects.

Savara's management is scheduled to attend Citizens' Life Sciences Conference on March 10-11, offering investors and analysts an opportunity to hear more about the aPAP market opportunity and the company's launch planning.

The research note was authored by Citizens analyst Jonathan Wolleben.


Several regulatory and corporate financing developments were highlighted alongside the research note:

  • The FDA has accepted Savara's BLA for MOLBREEVI and granted it Priority Review, setting a target action date of August 22, 2026.
  • Savara amended its loan agreement with Hercules Capital to allow access to up to $105 million in term loans, with availability contingent on FDA approval of MOLBREEVI.
  • The company resubmitted its BLA after addressing a prior Refusal to File letter from the FDA that requested additional data; the resubmission names FUJIFILM Biotechnologies as the drug substance manufacturer.

Market participants and other research houses have also updated their views following the resubmission. Guggenheim reiterated a Buy rating and maintained an $11 price target on Savara after the BLA was resubmitted. H.C. Wainwright raised its price target to $10 from $8 and kept a Buy rating, citing the successful resubmission of the BLA.

These parallel moves - regulatory progress, the contingent financing arrangement with Hercules Capital, and third-party research support - illustrate ongoing efforts by Savara to advance MOLBREEVI through the approval and potential commercialization pathway for this rare lung disease.

Readers should note that the company and its advisers continue to refine manufacturing and regulatory documentation as part of the approval process, and that the August 22, 2026 target action date remains the timeline for the FDA's formal decision under Priority Review.

Risks

  • Regulatory risk - Approval remains subject to the FDA's review process and the target action date of August 22, 2026 is when an official decision is expected; outcomes other than approval would materially affect commercialization plans and the healthcare and biotech markets.
  • Financing contingency - Access to up to $105 million in term loans from Hercules Capital is contingent on FDA approval of MOLBREEVI; failure to secure approval would affect Savara's financing options and operations.
  • Manufacturing and documentation risk - The BLA was resubmitted following a Refusal to File letter that requested additional data, and commercial readiness depends on the acceptability of manufacturing arrangements with FUJIFILM Biotechnologies; unresolved manufacturing issues could delay or complicate approval and launch preparation.

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