Analyst Ratings February 9, 2026

Citizens Upgrades TPG to Market Outperform, Sets $75 Target as Diversification and Fundraising Strengthen Profile

Analyst cites strategy execution, Angelo Gordon deal and accelerating fundraising even as mixed broker reactions and market volatility weigh on the stock

By Priya Menon TPG
Citizens Upgrades TPG to Market Outperform, Sets $75 Target as Diversification and Fundraising Strengthen Profile
TPG

Citizens Financial analyst Brian McKenna upgraded TPG Inc. (NASDAQ:TPG) from Market Perform to Market Outperform and set a $75 price target, citing successful execution of a diversified strategy since the company’s public listing in early 2022. Citizens highlighted organic growth across multiple product lines, strategic acquisitions including Angelo Gordon, and strong fundraising and deployment activity. The move follows a quarter in which TPG posted EPS of $0.71, beating expectations, but the stock fell amid market volatility and divergent broker responses.

Key Points

  • Citizens upgraded TPG from Market Perform to Market Outperform and set a $75 price target; shares were trading at $55.02 at the time of the note.
  • The analyst cited diversification away from a private equity and tech/growth focus, strong 19% return on equity over the last twelve months, and organic expansion in impact/infrastructure, private wealth, insurance, and secondaries.
  • Fundraising and deployment are running above $50 billion annually, Fee-Related Earnings per share and Distributable Earnings per share are growing about 20%+ annually, and TPG has raised its dividend for four consecutive years, yielding 4.43%.

Citizens analyst Brian McKenna has raised his view on TPG Inc. (NASDAQ:TPG), moving the stock from Market Perform to Market Outperform and assigning a $75.00 price target. At the time of the update, TPG was trading at $55.02. InvestingPro Fair Value metrics categorize the shares as undervalued within the current analyst target range of $56 to $83.

Citizens pointed to what it described as consistent execution of TPG’s long-term plan since the firm listed in early 2022. The research note emphasizes a deliberate diversification away from a concentrated private equity and technology/growth orientation toward a broader set of businesses. That strategic shift, the firm said, underpins a reported 19% return on equity and overall profitability for the trailing twelve months.

The analyst flagged multi-product organic growth as a core strength. Citizens called out expansion across impact and infrastructure, private wealth, insurance, and secondaries, while also noting that targeted acquisitions have strengthened the company’s product set and capabilities. InvestingPro data referenced by Citizens shows revenue growth of 33.43% over the past twelve months and a market capitalization of $20.8 billion.

One acquisition singled out in the note was the Angelo Gordon transaction. Citizens described the integration of Angelo Gordon into TPG’s platform as additive to the firm’s credit and real estate offerings. The firm quoted management language characterizing the combined business as creating "something much greater than two" and said the tie-up has helped TPG achieve "a whole new level of scale and diversification." Citizens also observed that five analysts have issued upward revisions to their earnings forecasts for the upcoming period, consistent with the integration and related growth assumptions.

Operational metrics cited by the analyst include fundraising and deployment activity both running at levels above $50 billion per year. Citizens also pointed to Fee-Related Earnings per share and Distributable Earnings per share growing at approximately 20% or more annually. On the shareholder-return front, TPG has raised its dividend in each of the past four years and currently yields 4.43%.

Recent quarterly results provide context for the upgrade. TPG’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings showed an EPS of $0.71, beating the forecasted $0.66 by 7.58%. Citizens attributed the outperformance primarily to transaction fees and FRPR, while noting that core management fees marginally undershot expectations. Market responses to the quarter were mixed.

Following the earnings release, other brokerages took divergent actions. Barclays lowered its price target on the stock from $78 to $69 while keeping an Overweight rating. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating and a $80 price target, pointing to faster-than-expected fundraising and management fee growth. Goldman highlighted a strong fourth quarter in which TPG raised $16 billion, above the firm’s internal estimate of roughly $9 billion, driven largely by activity in the Credit segment.

Despite the earnings beat and positive comments about fundraising, TPG’s share price declined after the report. The company’s stock movement reflected a combination of broader market volatility and investor sensitivity to near-term guidance. Citizens’ upgrade and the contrasting broker actions together illustrate a market grappling with both demonstrable growth metrics and uncertainties tied to forward expectations.


Analysis conclusion - Citizens views TPG’s multi-pronged growth and recent acquisitions as strengthening the firm’s earnings profile and diversification, supporting a move to Market Outperform with a $75 target. Nonetheless, differing broker assessments and stock reactions to earnings highlight an uneven near-term outlook.

Risks

  • Mixed broker reactions and subsequent price-target adjustments - Barclays lowered its target to $69 while Goldman Sachs maintained a $80 target, creating potential investor uncertainty that can impact market sentiment in financials and asset management sectors.
  • Market volatility and investor response to forward guidance - despite a quarterly EPS beat, TPG’s share price declined, indicating sensitivity to guidance and broader market swings which affects valuation in asset management and credit-related businesses.
  • Core management fees slightly missing expectations in the quarter - even with strong transaction fees and FRPR contributing to a beat, underperformance in core management fees introduces earnings variability that could influence cash flows and fee-related metrics.

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