Analyst Ratings February 11, 2026

Citizens Sticks With Market Outperform on Robinhood After Q4 Results, Sees Large Upside

Analyst keeps $180 target as mixed top-line and peer reactions leave valuation debate open

By Ajmal Hussain HOOD
Citizens Sticks With Market Outperform on Robinhood After Q4 Results, Sees Large Upside
HOOD

Citizens has reiterated its Market Outperform rating and $180 price target on Robinhood Markets following the company's fourth-quarter 2025 results. The call rests on expense discipline, expanding business contributions and a detailed roadmap, even as revenue missed expectations and other firms trimmed targets.

Key Points

  • Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating and $180 price target on Robinhood after Q4 2025 results, implying substantial upside from the then-current $85.60 share price.
  • Robinhood reported EPS of $0.66, slightly above Citizens’ $0.65 estimate and the $0.64 consensus; trailing-twelve-month diluted EPS stood at $2.39.
  • Revenue missed expectations - $1.28 billion versus a $1.34 billion projection - while expenses were modestly better than modeled, and a lower tax rate added about $0.06 to EPS.

Citizens has reaffirmed its Market Outperform rating on Robinhood Markets Inc., keeping a $180.00 price target after the brokerage reported fourth-quarter 2025 results. The price objective implies substantial upside from the then-current share price of $85.60, though separate InvestingPro analysis flagged the stock as potentially overvalued at present levels.

Robinhood reported quarterly earnings per share of $0.66 on Monday, a figure that modestly exceeded Citizens’ internal projection of $0.65 and the broader consensus estimate of $0.64. The firm also remains profitable on a trailing-twelve-month basis, with diluted earnings per share of $2.39.

On the top line, revenue underperformed Citizens’ model, coming in 5.5% below the firm’s forecast. That revenue shortfall was partially offset by expense outcomes, which ran about 1.8% below expectations. Citizens analyst Devin Ryan noted that a lower tax rate contributed roughly $0.06 to the quarter’s earnings beat.

Despite the revenue miss, Citizens maintained a constructive stance on Robinhood. The analyst cited what were described as better-than-expected expense results, a broadening mix of business contributions, and a comprehensive roadmap that Citizens believes should support robust growth in 2026.


Market reactions from other broker-dealers were mixed in the wake of the release. Piper Sandler reduced its price target to $135 from $155 while retaining an Overweight rating. Compass Point lowered its target to $127 from $170, pointing to a roughly 9% EBITDA shortfall tied to weaker securities lending revenue and lower take rates in cryptocurrency and options trading. Needham also trimmed its target, moving to $100 from $135, even as it characterized the results as strong and broadly in line with expectations.

The company itself reported record revenue and an earnings-per-share outcome that exceeded the firm-projected figure. Reported EPS for the quarter matched the $0.66 figure cited above and topped a separate projected $0.60 figure, a 10% upside versus that projection. Total revenue for the period reached $1.28 billion, below the $1.34 billion some had anticipated.

One operational highlight called out by analysts was the performance of Robinhood’s prediction markets, which registered a January volume peak of 3.5 billion contracts. That unit was singled out as a standout performer amid the broader set of results.


Overall, the consensus among the named analysts reflects a mixed reception: a combination of encouraging profit metrics and expense management coupled with top-line pressures and business-line headwinds that have led multiple firms to pare their price targets.

Risks

  • Revenue shortfall - The company’s quarterly revenue came in below some expectations, creating top-line risk for earnings and valuation; this primarily impacts financials and market-facing segments.
  • Business-line pressure - Lower securities lending revenue and falling take rates in cryptocurrency and options trading contributed to an EBITDA miss cited by Compass Point, indicating operational headwinds in trading and lending activities.
  • Analyst downgrades and target cuts - Multiple firms reduced price targets in response to the results, which could pressure market sentiment and stock performance in the near term.

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