Citizens has reaffirmed a Market Outperform rating on Amazon.com following the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, maintaining a $315.00 price target on the shares. The stock is trading at $208.65, which Citizens notes implies roughly a 51% upside to its target. The share price has fallen sharply in recent days, sliding about 12.5% over the past week.
In the wake of Amazon’s quarterly report, Citizens raised its Amazon Web Services (AWS) projections after re-evaluating the expected ramp in gigawatt capacity over the next two years. The firm said it had earlier underappreciated the pace of that increase and now models stronger capacity growth as a driver of AWS revenue acceleration.
Specifically, Citizens projects AWS growth will reach 30.5% by the end of 2026 and to carry momentum into 2027 with 28% growth. That 2027 forecast sits about $14 billion above consensus AWS estimates for that year, according to the firm’s updated modeling. The analysis rests on Amazon’s guidance that gigawatt capacity will double over the next two years, a trend Citizens views as enabling AWS to expand alongside rising artificial intelligence demand.
As a result of the revised capacity assumptions and the assumed lift from AI-related workloads, Citizens now expects roughly $37 billion of incremental AWS revenue. The firm says this outcome supports its decision to uphold the Market Outperform rating and the $315 price target on the e-commerce and cloud computing company.
Amazon separately disclosed plans to significantly increase its data center footprint, with capital expenditures forecast at $200 billion by 2026. Citizens and other market participants note this figure represents a 60% increase from the prior year. Lynx Equity, referenced in coverage of the spending plans, views the acceleration in capital investment as a positive for the semiconductor industry.
Amazon’s fourth-quarter results outpaced expectations, with demand described as robust across Online Stores, Advertising, and AWS. AWS growth accelerated to 24% year-over-year in the reported quarter.
Not all analysts moved in the same direction on valuation. Several firms trimmed their price targets while keeping favorable ratings. Truist Securities lowered its target to $280, Benchmark set its target at $275, and Piper Sandler reduced its target to $260, with each maintaining a Buy or Overweight rating. Stifel reiterated a Buy rating with a $300 price target, emphasizing Amazon’s performance and AWS growth.
These divergent target adjustments and the upheld Outperform from Citizens underline a range of analyst perspectives on Amazon’s growth prospects and capital spending trajectory amid the company’s substantial investment plans.