Analyst Ratings February 9, 2026

Citizens Starts Coverage on Fermi, Assigns $30 Target as Shares Trade Near Yearly Low

Research house gives Market Outperform to FRMI amid steep post-IPO decline and ongoing leasing negotiations

By Marcus Reed FRMI
Citizens Starts Coverage on Fermi, Assigns $30 Target as Shares Trade Near Yearly Low
FRMI

Citizens has begun coverage of Fermi (NASDAQ: FRMI), issuing a Market Outperform rating and a $30.00 price target while the stock trades around $8.00 and close to its 52-week low. The brokerage cites the potential impact of a single contract signing in early 2026 and models significant upside if Fermi develops and leases 11GW at market rates. The company has faced setbacks with a terminated funding agreement and difficult tenant negotiations, drawing attention from multiple analysts.

Key Points

  • Citizens began coverage of Fermi (FRMI) with a Market Outperform rating and a $30.00 price target on Monday, implying substantial upside from the current $8.00 share price.
  • The stock has fallen more than 75% over the past year and trades near a 52-week low of $7.18; it has declined roughly 62% since its IPO and shows high price volatility.
  • Analysts view varies - consensus leans toward "Strong Buy" with targets of $20 to $37, while InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently overvalued; the next earnings report is due February 25.

Citizens initiated coverage of Fermi (NASDAQ:FRMI) on Monday, assigning a Market Outperform rating and setting a price target of $30.00. That target implies a large premium to the stocks current trading level of $8.00, with shares sitting near a 52-week low of $7.18 after a decline of more than 75% over the past year.

The research note highlighted that Fermi has endured roughly a 62% pullback since its initial public offering and that the company experienced a setback related to an inability to convert a letter of intent into a binding contract. Recent data from InvestingPro indicates continued downside pressure, with the stock down approximately 2.91% over the past week and about 75.41% over the past six months, reflecting pronounced price volatility.

Citizens argued that a single signed contract - which the firm considers inevitable in the first half of 2026 - could begin to re-rate the company. In the research houses scenario analysis, if Fermi completes development and leases 11GW at market lease rates, the companys equity could be worth in excess of $350 per share after those assets are fully developed and leased.

The $30 target is framed by Citizens as roughly 7.5 times Fermis estimated 2028 EBITDA and represents a modest 1.5 times discount to the peer group average. That discount, according to the note, reflects Fermis pre-revenue status and the setback stemming from the terminated letter of intent.

Analyst sentiment across the street is generally bullish. A consensus view described in the firms coverage is "Strong Buy," with price targets from other analysts ranging from $20 to $37. At the same time, InvestingPros own analysis flags the stock as currently overvalued, presenting a contrasting perspective on valuation.

Investors monitoring Fermi will be watching the companys next earnings report on February 25. For subscribers, InvestingPro offers eight additional ProTips tied to the stock.


Recent corporate developments

Fermi has been subject to multiple notable events that have attracted analyst attention. One potential tenant terminated a $150 million construction funding agreement that had been intended to support Fermis Project Matador site. That termination followed the lapse of an exclusivity period and no funds were drawn from the agreement prior to its termination.

In addition to Citizens, other brokerages have publicly weighed in. Texas Capital Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating, pointing to the companys potential role in meeting AI computing demand. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating following discussions with Fermi senior management regarding data center leasing strategy. Stifel reported complications in talks with Fermis first key tenant, noting last-minute attempts by the tenant to change terms of the letter of intent.

Fermis management team is actively addressing these issues while attempting to finalize agreements with prospective tenants. These developments - and the range of analyst views - have kept the stock in focus for investors and market watchers.

Risks

  • Uncertainty in tenant commitments - a $150 million construction funding agreement tied to Project Matador was terminated after an exclusivity period expired, and no funds were drawn.
  • Negotiation setbacks - Stifel reported difficulties with Fermi's first key tenant, including last-minute attempts to change letter-of-intent terms, which could delay revenue realization.
  • Valuation disagreement - while some analysts project large upside contingent on successful leasing and development, InvestingPros analysis indicates the stock may be overvalued at current levels.

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