Citizens has reduced its rating on Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) from Market Perform to Market Underperform and set a price target of $20.00.
The firm described the downgrade as primarily valuation-based, pointing to increased clarity around the companys earnings power after Upstart provided three-year medium-term guidance. Citizens said that, despite shares trading below their 52-week high and falling 23% since reporting fourth-quarter results earlier this week, the stock still appears expensive on current metrics.
Citizens also observed that Upstart has been swept up in a broader sell-off affecting financial technology lenders that carry private credit exposure. The firm concluded that the present valuation does not sufficiently capture comparable peer multiples or the potential risks to Upstarts outlook.
On the fundamentals disclosed in the companys recent financials, Upstart reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results with mixed outcomes. Earnings per share came in at $0.17, missing analyst expectations of $0.46 and representing a 63.04% negative surprise. Revenue, however, exceeded forecasts: the company posted $296 million compared with the anticipated $288.45 million, a 2.64% positive surprise. Citizens characterized its assessment of valuation against this backdrop as informing the downgrade.
The recent reports did not include specified analyst opinions or forward-looking expectations from other firms. Citizens private assessment centers on relative valuation and disclosed guidance, and the firm notably referenced market dynamics affecting the fintech lending peer group.
Investors and market participants will likely continue to focus on Upstarts upcoming earnings and revenue disclosures for further signals on the companys performance versus guidance. These developments are part of the recent financial disclosures from the company.
Contextual note - The downgrade from Citizens and the companys mixed fourth-quarter 2025 results together frame the near-term narrative for Upstart: valuation scrutiny on one side and top-line strength on the other. Market reactions have already pressured the stock, and further company updates will be watched closely.