Analyst Ratings February 19, 2026

Citizens Lifts Travel + Leisure Price Target After Strong Q4 Results

Earnings beats, improved EBITDA and raised guidance prompt upgrade in valuation and continued analyst bullishness

By Ajmal Hussain TNL
Citizens Lifts Travel + Leisure Price Target After Strong Q4 Results
TNL

Citizens Financial Group increased its price objective on Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) to $90 from $80 and kept a Market Outperform rating after the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that topped both the firm's own projections and consensus. The quarter's adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA outperformed estimates, while full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised above market expectations. A separate analyst at Oppenheimer also lifted its target amid the stronger-than-expected performance and strategic actions announced by the company.

Key Points

  • Travel + Leisure reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.83, beating Citizens’ $1.74 estimate and consensus of $1.81 - impacting equity investors and leisure-sector stakeholders.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $272 million, above Citizens’ $256 million forecast, consensus $258.6 million, and the company’s previous guidance range - relevant to corporate finance and credit markets.
  • Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.03 billion to $1.055 billion exceeds both Citizens’ estimate of $1.022 billion and consensus of $1.017 billion - affecting market expectations and analyst valuations.

Citizens moved its target price for Travel + Leisure Co. (NYSE: TNL) to $90 from $80 and retained a Market Outperform rating in response to the company's fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, which exceeded the bank's projections as well as broader Street estimates.

Travel + Leisure reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.83 for the quarter, ahead of Citizens' $1.74 estimate and the consensus figure of $1.81. Adjusted EBITDA for the period reached $272 million, topping Citizens' forecast of $256 million and the consensus estimate of $258.6 million. The reported EBITDA also surpassed the high end of the company’s previously issued guidance range of $247 million to $267 million.

Citizens attributed the better-than-expected performance primarily to stronger top-line growth, with notable contribution from net vacation ownership interest sales. The company provided full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance in a range of $1.03 billion to $1.055 billion, which is above both Citizens' internal estimate of $1.022 billion and the consensus outlook of $1.017 billion.

Aaron Hecht, the Citizens analyst covering the name, flagged Travel + Leisure as the firm's preferred pick within the vacation ownership cohort. Hecht pointed to the company's steady delivery on results, an active share repurchase program and an improving leverage profile. Citizens also highlighted management's continued emphasis on expanding brand partnerships, a strategy the bank expects will help accelerate customer volume growth.

In related analyst activity, Oppenheimer reviewed the company's quarter and similarly noted outperformance. Oppenheimer's estimate for adjusted EBITDA had been $255 million; Travel + Leisure's reported $272 million exceeded that figure and the broader Street estimate of $258 million. Quarterly sales totaled $1,026 million, ahead of Oppenheimer's $983 million projection and the Street's $998 million estimate.

Alongside the results, Travel + Leisure unveiled a resort optimization plan that included significant inventory write-downs. Following the quarter and the announced actions, Oppenheimer raised its price target on the stock to $85 from $75 and maintained an Outperform rating.

The combined response from Citizens and Oppenheimer underscores a prevailing analyst view that recent operational outcomes and strategic adjustments support a higher valuation range for the company, while management guidance for 2026 suggests a stronger earnings trajectory than previously expected.


Summary

Citizens raised its price target on Travel + Leisure to $90 and kept a Market Outperform rating after the company beat EPS and adjusted EBITDA estimates for Q4 2025, and issued full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance above consensus. Oppenheimer also raised its target to $85 following the quarter and a resort optimization announcement.

Risks

  • The company recorded significant inventory write-downs as part of a resort optimization plan - introduces execution and asset valuation risk for Travel + Leisure and investors in leisure real estate.
  • Reliance on net vacation ownership interest sales for the quarter’s outperformance - if customer volume or pricing dynamics shift, revenue and margin trajectories could be affected, influencing hospitality and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Guidance and analyst targets reflect forward-looking expectations; any deviation from the announced full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA range could prompt market revaluation and impact credit and equity assessments.

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