Citizens on Monday raised its price target for EZCORP (NASDAQ:EZPW) to $33.00 from $26.00, while maintaining a Market Outperform rating on the pawn shop operator's shares. The new target implies a meaningful upside relative to the prevailing share price of $25.63, and InvestingPro data referenced by the research note indicates the stock is trading slightly above its Fair Value.
Investors pushed EZCORP higher last Friday, sending the share price up about 12% after the company reported operational gains and continued expansion in store count. Citizens said those developments appear to validate management's capacity to deploy capital and scale the business further. The stock's advance is part of a larger rally that has produced a 90.84% return over the past year and a 67.74% gain in the last six months.
In arriving at the $33.00 target, Citizens applied an unchanged valuation multiple of approximately 9x to its updated 2027 Adjusted EBITDA forecast for EZCORP. The firm emphasized management's expressed confidence in both further operational improvement in the core business and meaningful growth opportunities through acquisitions and new store openings.
Citizens also noted management commentary on product and technology development initiatives intended to improve pricing and enhance customer engagement, which the research firm cited as additional support for upside to the company's operating trajectory.
Quarterly performance and analyst reactions
EZCORP reported a quarter that Citizens described as robust, with sales growth of 19% that exceeded Canaccord Genuity's estimates and consensus expectations by roughly 6%. The company delivered adjusted EBITDA of $70 million for the December quarter, topping Citizens' estimate of $56 million and the Street's $57 million forecast. Citizens attributed part of the EBITDA outperformance to higher gold prices.
Following the quarterly results, Canaccord raised its price target on EZCORP from $28 to $34 and maintained a Buy rating. Citizens, in a separate prior action tied to the fiscal first-quarter results, had increased its price target from $23 to $26 before this latest update.
Acquisition expands footprint
EZCORP expanded its U.S. footprint through a transaction that gave it a controlling interest in Founders One, LLC, an operator of 105 pawn stores in the United States and operations in 11 other countries. The structure of that deal converted $45 million of preferred equity and $10 million of notes receivable into common equity, and included an additional $9.4 million cash contribution. Citizens called the transaction a significant extension of EZCORP's geographic reach into markets including Florida and Puerto Rico.
Context and valuation mechanics
Citizens' updated target is driven by modeling that retains a roughly 9x multiple applied to the firm's 2027 Adjusted EBITDA projection. The research note points to recent operational execution, acquisition activity and management initiatives as the primary drivers supporting the higher price objective.
The research landscape around EZCORP shows multiple firms revising targets upward after the quarter. Canaccord's move to $34 and Citizens' successive target increases reflect a consistent analyst response to the company exceeding sales and profitability expectations for the period discussed.
Summary of evidence cited by analysts
- Price target change: Citizens raised its target to $33.00 from $26.00 and retained a Market Outperform rating.
- Recent stock performance: Shares jumped 12% on Friday; 1-year return 90.84%; 6-month return 67.74%.
- Quarterly results: Sales growth of 19%; adjusted EBITDA of $70 million versus Citizens' $56 million estimate and the Street's $57 million estimate.
- Acquisition: Controlling interest in Founders One, LLC (105 U.S. pawn stores; operations in 11 other countries) via conversion of $45M preferred equity and $10M notes receivable, plus $9.4M cash contribution.
- Valuation approach: Citizens applied an unchanged multiple of approximately 9x to its revised 2027 Adjusted EBITDA estimate.